The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has announced that China plans to significantly increase its submarine forces by 2035. This will include, they say, stealthier submarines, which would be a a marked improvement over their existing “noisy” conventional submarines and would threaten the new Australia-UK-US Compact (AUKUS).

This is particularly worrying for Washington, as Chinese submarines now appear submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Such a development would have taken the United States by surprise, as it is happening much sooner than expected.

To mitigate the benefits this could bring to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), AUKUS is seeking to strengthen Australia’s fleet and its anti-submarine capabilities. According to reports, this will include advanced sensor networks and analytics powered by artificial intelligence (AI).

Besides their inherent ability to hide underwater, submarines are not safe detection, especially with technology like sonar. For this reason, modern submarines rely heavily on stealth technology, essential for evading detection.

Silent death of the deep

Modern submarines, like those of the United States Virginia-classare among the stealthiest. Incorporating innovations such as anechoic tiles (a rubberized coating), vibration-damping materials, and pump thrusters, these submarines are difficult to detect from the surface.

Unlike conventional screw propellers, pump-jet systems minimize turbulence and wake, making these submarines more difficult to detect. These submarines also incorporate advanced cooling systems to help reduce the signatures of their nuclear reactors.

Innovations such as radar-absorbing materials and demagnetization techniques also help minimize other detectable signatures. However, as detection systems improve through things like quantum sensors, AI, and multi-domain networks, the effectiveness of these stealthy measures decreases.

For this reason, experts predict that by 2050, “ocean transparency” could make traditional submarine stealth obsolete, forcing navies to adopt new tactics. To this end, naval operators are exploring asymmetric strategies to maintain their advantage.

These include the deployment of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) to mask submarine signatures. Other potential innovations include using noise to confuse AI-based detection systems and targeting adversary sensor networks with cyberattacks or direct sabotage.

Other possible innovations include sophisticated cyberattacks against enemy sensor networks and, of course, their physical elimination. This would consist of covert missions to destroy underwater telecommunications cables, sensor nodes, etc., to create blind spots for submarines to operate safely.

AUKUS is not limited to new submarines

To this end, WE Virginia-class submarines are now equipped to launch UUVs, reflecting this shift toward a broader strategy of deception and disruption. Yet despite its technological ambitions, the AUKUS pact faces practical challenges.

Under AUKUSBeyond building a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, the deal invests in advanced sensor and response capabilities, including AI analytics, quantum computing and hypersonic weapons.

These tools are designed to neutralize China’s growing naval capabilities, especially as its submarines become quieter and harder to track.

Thus, as China accelerates its naval modernization, AUKUS must balance investments in advanced submarines with advances in detection and counter-detection technologies. The next decade will determine whether stealth submarines will remain the cornerstone of undersea warfare or whether new strategies will emerge to redefine the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.