Like the Fed, Vanguard fears that Trump’s trade policies will increase so-called “core” inflation, that is, inflation minus the volatility of food and energy costs. On Friday, the Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which the Fed and Vanguard both prefer over the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, showed Core inflation is expected to be 2.8 percent in November, as in October. Asset promised in July, that if voters elected him, “inflation would disappear completely.” But Vanguard says “inflation will remain above 2.5% through most of 2025.” Even Trump has stopped claiming he will beat inflation. developer Eric Cortelessa in his Time “Person of the Year” Interview, “It’s hard to let go of things once they’re in place. »

In that same July speech, Trump said, “Incomes are going to skyrocket.” But according to According to the Trading Economics website, which compiles statistics from official sources, nominal wage growth will fall from its October level of 5.6 percent (and 5.4 percent forecast for the final quarter of 2024). at 4.7 percent, 3.5 percent and 2.5 percent during the same period. first, second and third quarters of 2025, respectively. If Vanguard is correct that inflation will not fall below 2.5% next year, then real wages will stop growing next time. year or start to fall. Under Biden, real median and average real wages have has been uprising for two and a half years.

Of course, these are just predictions; we cannot know precisely what awaits us in 2025. But in my opinion, these respectable calculations lean towards optimism. The pros predict that the economic situation will be a little worse. Freed from their imperative to give the benefit of the doubt, I believe the economy will collapse. Your investments can increase in value, which is all the oligarchs really care about. But this time next year, I doubt your boss will promise you a raise for 2026. Instead, he might tell you to clean out your desk.