China 2024: end of long-frozen military conflict with India in Ladakh

BEIJING: REST OF THE THEME It was a watershed year in India-China relations after a near freeze in their relations for more than four years – the longest since the 1962 war – with an agreement to end the impasse military in eastern Ladakh. After China’s “assembly of a large number of troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh” in April-May 2020, as Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said in a recent statement in Lok Sabha, which resulted in the Galwan Valley. During the shock of June 2020, there was a breakdown in relations between the two Asian giants.
The post-1962 war chill lasted until Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing in 1988.
This time, the two countries held periodic talks between senior commanders and through the Working Consultation and Coordination Mechanism (WMCC), resulting in phased disengagement from four points: Galwan Valley, Pangong Lake , hot springs and Gogra. – in the east of Ladakh by creating buffer zones.
Finally, on October 21, India and China reached an agreement on patrolling and troop disengagement along the LAC in eastern Ladakh at the remaining friction points of Depsang and Demchok.
The agreement led to the first structured meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the President. Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia shortly after, the first in five years.
Subsequently, Jaishankar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Brazil in November, where they reached an agreement that special representatives (SRs) and foreign minister-level mechanisms would soon be convened.
Established in 2003 to comprehensively resolve the contentious dispute over the 3,488 km India-China border, the Special Representatives Mechanism is headed by NSA Doval and Foreign Minister Wang.
Defense Minister Rajnath Singh also met his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun during the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting in Vientiane, Laos in November.
After the 23rd SR dialogue between Doval and Wang in December, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MEA) said the in-depth discussions were focused on a “positive” direction for cross-border cooperation, including resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and border trade, while the Chinese side said that there was a six-point consensus, including continuing to take measures to maintain border peace and promoting healthy and stable development of relations, was reached between the two sides.
Although China has not clearly explained why it moved its troops near the LAC region in 2020, the timing of the deal to ease border tensions with India is equally puzzling, just months before the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations.
But Beijing in recent months appeared to calm down after its economy struggled to reverse its slowdown, weighed down by problems such as the property crisis and rising unemployment.
Throughout the crisis which lasted more than four years, bilateral trade was not affected. In fact, it continued to thrive.
Bilateral trade, according to official Chinese figures, totaled $138.2 billion in 2023, with Chinese exports climbing to $122 billion and Indian exports to China to $16.2 billion. India’s trade deficit with China stood at $105.8 billion last year.
The trade deficit in the first six months of this year reached $41.89 billion, with Chinese exports totaling $50.35 billion compared to $8.46 billion for Indian exports to China, data from the Indian embassy in Beijing.
In 2025, in the face of stubborn attempts by the US and EU to restrict Chinese exports with heavy tariffs, China seeks to increase exports as well as investments in India, particularly in electric vehicles.
Experts see expanding trade with India, currently the world’s fastest-growing economy, as a new path to partly offsetting the likely damage caused by the Trump 2.0 era.
China has also recalibrated its foreign, trade and military policies ahead of this year’s US presidential elections, particularly after President-elect Donald Trump pledged to raise tariffs beyond those he had imposed on China during his first term.
Chinese officials say there is considerable concern in Beijing that India-US relations under President Trump will gain new momentum, particularly the Quad group comprising the United States, India, Australia and Japan, which China perceives as an alliance aimed at containing them.
Besides India, China has also sought to recalibrate its strained ties with Australia and Japan.
Meanwhile, as China celebrated 75 years of Communist Party rule, a crucial meeting of the ruling Communist Party in July passed a resolution in favor of comprehensive reforms aimed at lifting sluggish growth by achieving socialist modernization by 2035.
President Xi, who continued to whip corruption against the ruling Communist Party and military officials, asked them in January to turn the knife inward and wage the anti-corruption campaign without any mercy.
Xi’s anti-corruption campaign in the military has attracted worldwide attention, which his critics say has allowed him to consolidate his grip on power.
China also announced it would raise the retirement age from January 2025, after a second consecutive year of population decline. The demographic crisis was further highlighted by the fact that China’s marriage registrations in the first half of 2024 fell to a record low since 1980, not to mention the reduction in the number of kindergartens and the decline in the number of children who are registered there.
In June, China’s Chang’e-6 spacecraft successfully landed in the South Pole-Aitken basin on the far side of the Moon, in the first such attempt in human history. aiming to collect samples from rarely explored terrain and bring back the Chinese spacecraft. ground.
Meanwhile, Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh remained contentious issues as China celebrated the 65th anniversary of its takeover of Tibet.
In March, Joe Biden’s administration recognized Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory. Biden also signed the “Promoting a Resolution of the Tibet-China Dispute” Act in July, triggering a sharp response from Beijing.