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Oil is flattening; Markets weigh on IEA surplus forecasts, rate cut optimism
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Oil is flattening; Markets weigh on IEA surplus forecasts, rate cut optimism

NEW YORK: Oil prices were almost unchanged on Thursday, pressured by a forecast of ample supply in the oil market, but supported by growing expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Brent crude futures lost 11 cents, or 0.15 percent, to $73.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 27 cents, or 0.38 percent, to $70.02.

The International Energy Agency has revised its demand forecast for next year slightly upwards, but still expects the oil market to be comfortably supplied. On Wednesday, OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast for 2024 for the fifth consecutive month.

“If you look at the actual data, the IEA says the glut it predicts should happen right now,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Global oil stocks fell by 39.3 million barrels in October as weak refinery activity coincided with an increase in global oil demand, according to IEA data.

In the United States, inflation increased slightly in November, in line with economists’ expectations. Investors widely expect the Fed to cut rates again, fueling optimism about economic growth and energy demand.

“The inflation report creates a lot of comfort. It could have been better, but it appears to be low enough that the Fed can cut rates at the next meeting,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst. at SEB.

In the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, stocks of gasoline and distillates rose more than expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Global oil demand grew at a slower pace than expected this month but remained resilient, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.

China’s crude imports rose annually for the first time in seven months in November, up more than 14 percent from a year earlier.

In the Middle East, Iran agreed to stricter monitoring from the UN nuclear watchdog at its mountain-hewn Fordow site after dramatically ramping up uranium enrichment to so that it is close to military quality, putting pressure on prices.