A renewed heatwave and increased fire risk will occur in the Northeast through midweek, but there will be opportunities for precipitation that could alleviate drought and fire potential in the future. AccuWeather say the meteorologists.

Weeks with little or no precipitation and days with temperatures well above the historical average resulted in the formation of scrub and dry grass in the northeast. Fallen leaves from changing seasons have added to potential fuels in the region, and multiple bushfires have broken out in recent days.

“The fire danger will persist until heavy rain occurs from area to area,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek. “On particular days when temperatures rise, humidity levels remain low and winds pick up, the risk of fire will be significantly elevated.”

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One of those days will be Wednesday in the Northeast, particularly from West Virginia and Virginia to lower eastern Maine, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s to near 80 F, and the South and southwest winds will average between 15 and 25 mph for some time.

Any an existing fire can spread quickly. Burning embers from discarded cigarettes, piles of burning leaves, smoldering campfires and sparks from outdoor electrical equipment are all ways to start a quick bushfire, and extreme caution should be used.

Winds will pick up in front of a cool front bringing a few showers. However, as has often been the case with fronts containing showers from the Midwest, the moisture from this front will tend to decrease as it approaches the central and northern Appalachians and then moves toward the coast . In many cases along the Interstate 95 corridor to the northeast, little or no rain may fall from the frontal passage.

“Wednesday could be the last day of fall where we have high temperatures a few degrees around 80 until next spring,” Dombek said. “Temperatures will challenge or exceed daily records in a number of locations.”

In the wake of the front, temperatures will trend downward from Thursday to Saturday. For example, temperatures in New York will peak a few degrees near 80 on Wednesday, followed by a high near 70 on Thursday, the mid-60s on Friday, then the mid-50s on Saturday.

Lower temperatures will help reduce the fire risk, but existing fires may continue to burn and spread, particularly during windy events.

“Looking ahead, there will be some opportunities for precipitation in the coming weeks, but the overall pattern will remain gradual in that precipitation will likely be brief and likely not excessive,” Dombek said.

A chance for rain will begin this weekend and last through early next week. Arrival time is in question due to dry air and high pressures expected to give way first.

“Should Raphael move northward and toward the United States, the associated tropical humidity could even increase showers from the next approaching front,” Dombek said.

Most likely, not enough rain will fall to have a significant or long-term impact on the drought, including by shrivelling small streams and drying up the region’s shallow reservoirs. Subsequent showers may be enough to eliminate the threat of wildfires until the next wave of moisture arrives.

Skiing interests are still out of luck. Even if the historical average temperature tends to drop in November, actual temperatures will remain well above this normal drop.

“For much of the Northeast in general, by the end of the month it appears that temperatures for all of November will likely be about 5 degrees warmer than the historical average in the Northeast,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s chief long-range meteorologist. “We may not see highs in the 70s, near 80 again after Wednesday, but the weather will still be quite mild for several days given the time of year.”

Over an entire month, any temperature deviation from a historical average of 2 degrees or more is considered significant.

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