The double-digit weeks of the 2024 NFL season are here. Week 10 marks the second half of the season in its own right, and each game becomes more important for all NFL teams, whether they’re in playoff contention or in evaluation mode.

The stakes also rise for Sporting News as we try to finish strong with our picks and predictions against the spread.

More byes are here, leading to a 14-game slate to consider. Without further ado, let’s move on to this week’s fearless pro pigskin predictions.

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 10

Peter Casey-Imagn Images

• Bengals vs. Ravens (-6, 52.5 o/u)

Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Bengals are humming their passing game with Joe Burrow playing at an MVP level despite their 4-5 start. However, Lamar Jackson is acting like he wants to repeat for MVP, and both of these teams have enough defensive issues to think both QBs will have big games. It comes down to more diverse weapons and a better power play, and that late-game advantage goes to Baltimore at home in prime time.

Take: The Ravens win 27-24 but are unable to cover the gap.

MORE: Lamar Jackson ties record for most perfect passer rating

• Game of the week: Steelers at Commanders (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers want to build a lead with big passes from Russell Wilson, run the ball efficiently with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and let TJ Watt get the start on defense. The problem is that the Commanders offensive line can control the action with the rushing attack and also features the elusive scrambler of Jayden Daniels. Wilson will be contained with the deep ball by Dan Quinn’s defense as Washington wins the game up front.

Take: The Commanders win 23-20 and cover the gap.

WEEK 10 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QB | R.B. | W.R. | YOU | D/ST | Kickers

• Lock of the week: Chargers (-7.5, 38 o/u) over Titans

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chargers like to tear apart inferior opponents with limited offenses. Their defense can dominate a lesser AFC team for a second straight week, causing pressure and coverage issues after the run is stopped. Justin Herbert is heating up and JK Dobbins won’t be cooling down at home as Jim Harbaugh’s team heads to the AFC playoffs.

Take: The Chargers win 34-14 and cover the gap.

MORE: NFL playoff picture through Week 9

• Upset of the week: Saints (+3.5, 47.5 o/u) vs. Falcons

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Saints fired their former coach, Dennis Allen, after losing to the Panthers on the road. They should be motivated with interim coach Darren Rizzi at home to take on their arch rivals in the NFC South. That includes playing on inspired special teams, Rizzi’s specialty. Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and the veteran leaders of the defense will provide a winning effort that won’t do too much harm to the Falcons’ chances of navigating the division down the stretch. Expect Falcons killer Taysom Hill to be the difference maker.

Take: The Saints win 24-21.

MORE FALCONS: Drake London injury update | Drake London celebrates TD with viral handstand

MORE SAINTS: Chris Olave injury update | Michael Thomas rips Derek Carr for a pass leading to Olave’s injury

• Giants (-4.5, 41.5 o/u) vs. Panthers

Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network (in Munich, Germany)

Daniel Jones continues to rise and fall as the starting veteran QB for New York, win or lose. Bryce Young could have purchased a second-year extension for Carolina. Jones, however, will face less of an overseas pass rush here than Young. He will have better support and will use his athleticism to his veteran advantage.

Take: The Giants win 24-17 and cover the gap.

• Patriots at Bears (-6.5, 39.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, was edged out by the No. 2 pick, Daniels, in a Hail Mary win on the road two weeks ago. Williams will look to improve to 3-0 at home against Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick. Chicago and London are the only sites of wins for the Bears this season, as they are a much better young home team for Matt Eberflus. They should also get back on track with the running game and overall defense, although Maye and the inspired Patriots can make it difficult for four quarters.

Take: The bears win 24-20 but fail to cover the gap.

MORE: Is Matt Eberflus in the hot seat? | Caleb Williams injury news

• Bills (-4.5, 47 o/u) at Colts

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Buffalo can make Indianapolis roll with the running game, while backs James Cook and Ray Davis can warm up to support Josh Allen’s powerful rush. The Colts have trouble giving up big passing plays to big-arm QBs, which also works in Allen’s favor. Jonathan Taylor is the only way for the hosts to stay in the game, which won’t last long once the Bills can lock ears against Joe Flacco.

Take: The Bills win 27-13 and cover the spread.

MORE: Shane Steichen commits to Joe Flacco as starting QB despite lifeless outing against Vikings

• Broncos at Chiefs (-9.5, 42 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Broncos were attacked in Baltimore by a better team with a savvy offense, and facing the defending AFC runners-up on the road in back-to-back weeks is brutal. Patrick Mahomes loves seeing and sorting Denver, and he will continue to get help from his running game. Bo Nix will have another tough chance in a one-dimensional offense against a strong pass defense.

Take: The Chiefs win 30-14 and cover the gap.

MORE: NFL playoff picture through Week 9

• 49ers (-6.5, 48 o/u) at Buccaneers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers will be healthier after a bye, hoping to get Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings back to add some pop to the passing game with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Brock Purdy will be locked in to operate a beatable secondary all over the field. The 49ers defense will fix some things and attack Baker Mayfield well, but he will be feisty and feisty enough for a short week to take care of the back of house coverage.

Take: The 49ers win 27-22 but are unable to cover the gap.

MORE: Christian McCaffrey injury update

• Vikings (-4, 46 o/u) at Jaguars

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

This is a terrible place for Jacksonville. Minnesota’s pass rush will be fearless in going after Trevor Lawrence, as the Jaguars aren’t running enough or well enough early and have a key weapon to beat their defense in Christian Kirk. The Vikings should have no trouble blasting Justin Jefferson down the field for Sam Darnold, but it’s a play that will also allow Kevin O’Connell’s supporting pass catchers to go as well.

Take: The Vikings win 30-20 and cover the gap.

MORE: Why Travon Walker’s Controversial TD Return Wasn’t Overturned by Replay

• Eagles (-7, 42.5 o/u) at Cowboys

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Both offenses should be key short plays. Jalen Hurts could be without wide receiver AJ Brown (knee) and tight end Dallas Goedert (hamstring). The Cowboys have no sympathy for injured Dak Prescott (hamstring) and CeeDee Lamb (shoulder). Cooper Rush is tasked with saving what’s left of Dallas’ season for a moment. He’ll be ready to spark some offense at home, but Philadelphia can get methodical later with Hurts and Saquon Barkley on the floor to put the rivalry game on the road aside.

Take: The Eagles win 24-23 but are unable to cover the gap.

MORE EAGLES:
Nick Sirianni calls Saquon Barkley’s hurdle ‘best play (he) has ever seen’ | AJ Brown injury update

MORE COWBOYS:
Dak Prescott injury update | CeeDee Lamb injury update | Will the Cowboys make the playoffs? | Jerry Jones talks deadline deals

• Jets at Cardinals (-1, 46 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jets were given a mini-bye to capitalize on their late potential in the AFC playoff race. They started Aaron Rodgers last week with their top wide receivers and can also lean on Breece Hall for additional offensive juice. Kyler Murray led the running game and defense to a big home win against the Bears, but he’ll be pushed to pass more with Rodgers, a duel he won’t win against the Jets’ pass defense.

Take: The Jets win 27-17.

MORE: Garrett Wilson’s incredible one-handed catch | Malachi Corley channels DeSean Jackson with goal-line fumble

• Lions (-3, 49 o/u) among the Texans

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

The Lions can contain the best asset of the Texans offense, which is the running game with Joe Mixon. CJ Stroud will face some heat again, and he sorely needs the return of wide receiver Nico Collins to get the passing game back on track. Houston has played a lot of close games and has the talent to hold up with Sunday night home emotions, but Detroit is getting harder to beat every week. Running backs and Amon-Ra St. Brown tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

Take: The Lions win 27-20 and cover the gap.

MORE LIONS: Explaining Brian Branch’s Controversial Expulsion | Amon-Ra St. Brown celebrates TD with a viral handstand

MORE TEXANS: Will Anderson Jr. injury update

• Dolphins at Rams (-2.5, 50.5 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Dolphins aren’t the same dangerous passing game with Tua Tagovailoa. They rely heavily on sophomore De’Von Achane’s running and receiving to set the tone for the offense. The Rams can keep Tagovailoa compressed with a young pass rush and plan tighter coverage searches for him. On the other side, the Rams can run through Miami with Kyren Williams and burn them all over with Cooper Kupp and an expanded impact receiving corps for Matthew Stafford.

Take: The Rams win 24-20 and cover the gap.

MORE: Puka Nacua shocked by expulsion for throwing punch against Seahawks

Statistics of the week

• Record from week 9 directly: 10-5
• Week 9 record against the spread: 7-8
• Since the start of the season: 94-46
• Since the start of the season against the spread: 72-65