TEL AVIV, Israel — Donald Trump will return to the U.S. presidency at a time of unprecedented conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East. He vowed to fix it.

But Trump’s strong historical support for Israel, coupled with his emphasis during the campaign on the need to quickly end the war in Gaza, the isolationist forces of the Republican Party and his penchant for unpredictability raise a mountain of questions about the impact of his second presidency on the region. at this pivotal moment.

Unless a ceasefire is reached before the inauguration, Trump will ascend to the nation’s highest office while a brutal war still rages in Gaza and Israel continues its offensive against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah . The conflagration between Iran and Israel shows no signs of abating — nor do conflicts between Israel and Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen — and Iran’s nuclear program remains a major concern for Israel.

Trump says he wants peace, but how?

Throughout his campaign, Trump pledged to bring peace to the region.

“Let’s get this over with, let’s get back to peace and let’s stop killing people,” Trump said of the Gaza conflict in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in April.

Israel launched the war in response to Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, when militants killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250, dozens of whom remain in Gaza. The Israeli offensive has killed more than 43,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities, whose count does not distinguish between civilians and combatants, although they say more than half of the dead are women and children. .

The war has triggered a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, plunged Israel into increasing international isolation, with two international tribunals examining war crimes charges, and sparked a wave of protests on American campuses that have fueled debate over the role of United States as Israel’s main military and military force. diplomatic supporter.

International mediators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar tried unsuccessfully to bring about a lasting ceasefire.

Yet Trump has repeatedly urged Israel to “finish the job” and destroy Hamas – but has not specified how.

“Does finishing the job mean you have a free hand to act against the remnants of Hamas? Or does finishing the job mean the war must end now? asked David Makovsky, director of the Arab-Israeli Relations Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “That’s one of the enigmas here.”

Netanyahu pins hopes on a pro-Israel Trump administration

Uncertainty also looms over how Trump will engage with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump provided broad support for the Israeli leader’s hardline policies, including unilaterally withdrawing from a deal intended to curb Iran’s nuclear program that Netanyahu has long opposed.

Trump also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, strengthening his claims to the disputed city and Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war. He outlined a plan of peace with the Palestinians widely seen as favorable to Israel. Settlement construction in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, seen as an obstacle to the creation of a Palestinian state, boomed under his presidency.

Trump also helped secure deals between Israel and four Arab countries to normalize relations that did not depend on progress toward a Palestinian state — a major victory for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader hopes to replicate these successes by striking a deal with Saudi Arabia.

The leaders fell out after Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden after the 2020 election – a move that Trump saw as an insult from his loyal ally, although Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida this year.

Under Biden, the United States has at times been critical and slowed some arms deliveries in response to Israel’s conduct in Gaza. Netanyahu likely hopes that Trump’s return will loosen any restrictions on Israel in pursuing its war goals. The US leader may also seek to challenge a possible international war crimes arrest warrant for Netanyahu. And more harmonious relations with Washington could help improve popular support for the Israeli leader.

“He has the most pro-Israel record of any president,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “The hope is there that there will be more of the same.”

Neither Netanyahu nor Trump have a clear vision for post-war Gaza

Netanyahu leads a far-right government whose key members have vowed to overthrow his rule if the war in Gaza ends with anything other than the destruction of Hamas. They support Gaza resettlement and are excited about a Trump presidency – and their influence will only grow now that Netanyahu has fired his defense minister over his more pragmatic approach to the conflict.

Their hold on the government and on Netanyahu’s political future helps explain why Netanyahu has not set out a clear vision for a post-war Gaza.

The Biden administration favors having the war-ravaged territory governed by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which administers part of the West Bank. Netanyahu has rejected the idea and insists on the right of the Israeli military to operate there.

Trump did not present a clear vision, although he said developers could make Gaza “better than Monaco” because it has “the best location in the Middle East, the best water, the best of everything.”

Diana Buttu, a former adviser to Palestinian leaders, said the lack of a firm US vision for Gaza, coupled with a politically powerful Israeli far right, made the future of Gaza’s people and Palestinians bleak. general.

“I don’t see this as a president who is going to care about the Palestinians,” she said.

Will Trump help defend Israel against Iran or will he choose America first?

In Lebanon, Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah with a ground invasion and strikes against Hezbollah targets. The militant group has fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israeli communities, killing dozens and displacing 60,000. Meanwhile, the Israeli offensive has displaced more than a million people in Lebanon and killed more of 3,000 people.

Here too, American mediation efforts were unsuccessful. Trump, who has a Lebanese-American son-in-law, recently posted on social platform X that as president he would “end the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.”

But the key question is to what extent Trump will allow himself to be swayed by his “America First” instincts.

The United States played a central role in diplomatic efforts throughout the war, and an even more important role in helping Israel defend itself against Iran and its allies.

The United States has sent military assets to the region, helped Israel thwart two Iranian missile attacks and even sent American troops to Israel to operate a sophisticated air defense system. But any effective Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a target it avoided in its strike last month, will likely require greater U.S. military involvement.

Accusations that Iran hacked campaign associates and concerns that Tehran could engage in violence against Trump or members of his administration could deepen its antipathy toward the country.

Although Trump has indicated he will focus on domestic affairs, the Middle East could be an exception.

He enjoys broad support from staunchly pro-Israel evangelical Christians, and his son-in-law and former adviser Jared Kushner was a prominent voice for the country during his first administration.

“As Trump is likely to navigate these forces primarily based on intuition,” said Udi Sommer, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations at Tel Aviv University, “uncertainty will likely define his approach.”