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    • The GOP prepares to expand its control
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    The GOP prepares to expand its control

    Pabio Posted on

    Results from the Nov. 7 vote show Republicans increased their lead in the fight for control of the Arizona House of Representatives, erasing Democrats’ lead.

    According to unofficial results, with hundreds of thousands of ballots still outstanding, Republicans appear poised to increase their majority from one seat to three, with current results giving the House a 33-27 split. The Republicans could potentially win one or more seats given the trend of the results of the upcoming polls, while the path to victory for the Democrats narrowed.

    Democrats thought this was the year they would win two more seats in the House of Representatives, giving them power they hadn’t had since 1964.

    Arizona Republicans were vulnerable in both the House and Senate with their one-seat majority in each chamber. A victory in both chambers while Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs remains in office would plunge the state into a whole new political dimension. Democrats also did not make numerical gains in the Senate, according to the latest results.

    Democrats had multiple paths to electoral victory in the House in this election, as did Republicans. For every imaginary victory of a House seat by Democrats, it was easy to also imagine a Republican victory in a different district that would undermine the Democrats’ goal.

    Republicans had the overall registration advantage in the state as well as in seven of the states. eight possible swing districts coveted by Democrats. Concerns about inflation and border issues have pushed some wavering voters to the right.

    Advantages on the Democratic side include some conservatives’ strong dislike of two “front-runner” candidates — former President Donald Trump and U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake — and a measure on the right to abortion on the ballot that could lead to greater Democratic voter turnout, with both. trends potentially affecting legislative races.

    2024 election: View Arizona election results

    Legislative District 17 — South Pinal County, North Tucson

    Political observers agree that one of Democrats’ best chances is in this sprawling three-county district, centered on Marana and including parts of Tucson and its northern suburbs like Oro Valley.

    The current House members both belong to the conservative Arizona Freedom Caucus and are known for their far-right positions on issues ranging from abortion to elections. Reps. Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones promise consistent conservative positions on issues including abortion, guns, voter fraud allegations and immigration.

    They have also both been criticized for positions that deviate from the Republican mainstream. McGarr, for example, introduced a bill this year that would have essentially overturned the presidential election in Arizona if the candidate of one of the major parties were to be excluded from the ballot “for any reason” in any state. The bill was never heard.

    The state redistricting commission designated the district in 2021 to give more power to conservatives in the Tucson area, which has for years been a Democratic landscape. Although he has a substantial Republican registration advantage, an Arizona Republic analysis shows his voters narrowly selected Hobbs for governor in 2022 over Lake. McGarr also defeated Democratic House candidate Dana Allmond that year by less than a percentage point.

    Democrat Kevin Volk of Tucson has the inherent advantage of being a single candidate: These candidates benefit from the tendency of voters to vote for just one House candidate from their party instead of two. Volk also dominates in campaign funds with nearly half a million dollars in donations and another quarter of a million dollars to support independent spending.

    Volk takes expected Democratic positions on affordable housing, education and abortion rights, but he also emphasizes funding for border security.

    McGarr and Jones have each raised nearly $150,000 for their campaigns, and both enjoy six-figure independent spending. McGarr also faces more than $200,000 in outside expenses against him.

    The latest results show that Volk maintains his strong lead over the two Republicans. Jones was second and McGarr third.

    Legislative District 13 — Chandler, Gilbert

    Legislative District 13, which includes most of Chandler and part of Gilbert, could have achieved a Democratic House tie if voters there had selected both party candidates. Early Wednesday, this result favored the Republicans.

    Voters in the Republican-leaning district chose Democrat Jennifer Pawlik to serve in 2022 alongside far-right Republican Liz Harris, creating a divided district. Harris was expelled from the Legislature last year and replaced by Julie Willoughby. But the equation for Democrats changed when Pawlik decided not to run again this year.

    Republican Jeff Weningera business-minded Republican who had previously served in the Legislature and Chandler City Council, mobilized to try to take Pawlik’s seat.

    The Democrats presented two candidates, Brandy Reese and Nicolas Gonzaleswith the aim of retaining the seat of Pawlik and that of Willoughby.

    Neither has held office before. Reese is a retired Oklahoma criminologist who has emphasized her title “peace officer” in campaign literature and favors increased spending on public schools. Gonzalez is a former small business owner and housing planner for Chicanos Por La Causa.

    The results show Weninger and Willoughby in the lead, with Reese in third place and Gonzales in fourth place. Relatively few votes separate each of the four candidates. Reese started the night ahead of Weninger, but subsequent votes were more on the Republican side.

    Legislative District 4—East Phoenix, Scottsdale

    Democrats were also fortunate to pick up a House seat in Legislative District 4, which encompasses Paradise Valley and parts of north Phoenix and Scottsdale. Democrats Karen Gresham and former lawmaker Kelli Butler hoped to win both seats in the House.

    One of the seats is already occupied by Democrat Eric Meyer, a former deputy not running for re-election and chosen to replace him. Rep. Laura Terech, who resigned in July.

    Democrats hoped to hold on to Meyer’s seat and beat Republican incumbent Matt Gress. Pamela Carter, a first-time legislative candidate, is also running as a Republican.

    The House race is one of the most expensive in any legislative election: Gress benefited from more than $570,000 in campaign contributions and an additional half-million in outside spending to support him. Gresham and Butler each raised nearly $500,000.

    The latest results show that Gress – who was in third place after the first results were announced on election night – is still in first place. And Carter moved into second place, edging Butler into third.

    Legislative District 2 — North Phoenix

    Democrats have created another possible opening for Republicans in Legislative District 2 with a strategic move to recruit the incumbent Representative Judy Schwiebert to try to overthrow the existing state Senator Shawnna Bolick. Although this change gives Democrats a good chance of flipping the now-Republican Senate seat, they need a primary legislative candidate. Stephanie Simacek to win Schwiebert’s old seat.

    Two Republicans – outgoing Rep. Justin Wilmeth and political newcomer Ari Bradshaw – I hope to win both seats. Independent candidate Tom Simes also plays a role here.

    Maricopa County results on Election Day showed Simacek ahead of both Republican House candidates, with Bradshaw in third place.

    Legislative District 9—Mesa

    Democrats must retain both incumbent House members, Representatives Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman in West Mesa Legislative District 9.

    The district is slightly Democratic, but Republicans hope candidates Kylie Barbier or Mary Ann Mendoza will expel one or both Democrats.

    Funding was a key factor for the Democratic candidates, who raised $1.8 million in donations and outside spending, about seven times more than the two Republicans.

    The two Democrats led the two Republicans early on November 6, with Barber in third. However, the gap between Barber, Mendoza and Blattman narrowed considerably after that. Mendoza and Barber switched places several times on November 7, but remained behind the two Democrats.

    Other neighborhoods

    In Legislative District 27 of Glendale and Peoria, Democrat Deborah Howard is running as a sole candidate against two new hopefuls, Republican candidates Lisa Fink and former lawmaker Tony Rivero.

    Both seats have been open since House Speaker Ben Toma decided not to run for reelection, instead attempting to win the Republican primary in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, and Rep. Kevin Payne , who is term-limited in the House, ran unopposed for the district. Seat of the Senate.

    A Howard victory would be a major upset with both seats currently Republican. But that’s far from the case because the district is heavily Republican.

    Fink and Rivero led the race early Wednesday, with Howard remaining in third place.

    To ensure a majority in the House, both parties needed to avoid losing their current seats to competition.

    Republican Rep. Michele Peña won a House seat in Legislative District 23 in 2022, sparing Republicans from a 30-30 power split. Because it’s unclear how Peña won in the Democratic-leaning district, aside from the one-shot effect, Democrats were hoping lightning wouldn’t strike twice. Matías RosalesSan Luis City Council member, is running to try to beat Peña along with incumbent Rep. Mariana Sandoval.

    Peña had widened his lead early Wednesday, with Sandoval still in second place and Rosales in third.

    A potential upset that observers see as more likely for Republicans could occur in Legislative District 16, which includes Sacaton and the Gila River Indian Reservation, Maricopa, Casa Grande and Coolidge. Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez and Democrat Keith Seaman won both House seats there in 2022. But another Republican, Chris Lopezchallenged Seaman, considered vulnerable in the Republican-leaning district.

    Martinez and Lopez maintained their lead in the results early on November 6, with Seaman in third place.

    This story will be updated as election results are announced.

    Contact the journalist at [email protected] or 480-276-3237. Follow him on @raystern.

    Pabio
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