Last month, the Biden administration issued an ultimatum to Israel: massively increase aid to Gaza within 30 days, or face consequences that could include the loss of U.S. military support.

This 30 day window expired yesterday. FactCheck analysis of Israeli and UN data shows that whatever numbers you rely on, Israel has largely missed this goal.

Aid arriving in Gaza sharply reduced after Rafah offensive

We analyzed aid data dating back to October last year, when Israel began its attack on Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attacks.

We’ll start by looking at numbers from UNRWA – the UN humanitarian agency that the Israeli Parliament recently voted to ban – but we’ll also look at Israeli government sources.

UNRWA data says that before the war, an average of 500 trucks entered Gaza every day – these are humanitarian and commercial trucks combined. (Not just trucks carrying humanitarian aid from NGOs, but also goods to be purchased from private traders.)

Following the Hamas attack on October 7 last year, Israel launched a total blockade from the Gaza Strip – meaning that virtually no aid reached the Palestinians during this first month of war. UNRWA figures show only about nine trucks per day on average.

By April this year, the aid volume had reached a maximum of around 190 trucks per day.

Then in early May, Israel began its assault on Rafah – a town in southern Gaza. The offensive led to the closure of the crucial Rafah crossing, which was the main route for aid and supplies into the territory.

Although other entry points have been used since then, aid supplies have steadily declined since the closure of the Rafah crossing in May – falling to around 40 trucks per day last month, and only around 30 trucks per day in November so far.

UNRWA figures presented for November may be revised upwards as new trade data becomes available.

Many goods supplied by private traders are too expensive for displaced Palestinians, while many do not have access to cash or bank accounts to pay them.

So, if we exclude commercial trucks and only look at humanitarian aid, the picture looks even bleaker.

Israeli figures – another story?

Israeli government data estimates that the amount of aid coming into Gaza is on average about 30 percent higher than that of UNRWA. However, like UNRWA, it also shows a marked decline in aid volumes since May.

An unnamed Israeli official told the Associated Press that for the month of November so far, they were transporting on average “50 trucks per day to northern Gaza and 150 per day to the rest of Gaza.” If true, this would represent a significant increase since October.

But even if this suggested total of 200 trucks per day were confirmed, it would remain well below the American objective.

And this remains well below the 500 trucks per day which, according to the UN, remains the minimum volume required to meet the needs of the population.

Israel rejects allegations that it is deliberately restricting aid, saying it has opened a new passage for help to have come in yesterday. This was another of America’s demands on Israel.

This week, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was discussing the issue with the United States to see how it “could respond to humanitarian requests in difficult circumstances.”

Although the aid target was not met, the United States said it would not limit arms transfers to Israel, tell Associated Press “At this time, we have not assessed that the Israelis are violating US law. »

The Biden administration has said Israel has made positive, but limited, progress in increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.

(IMAGE CREDIT: VASSIL DONEV/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.)