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Betting for (by) dummies: divided on Bills-Chiefs, united on Kansas and some CFL stocks
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Betting for (by) dummies: divided on Bills-Chiefs, united on Kansas and some CFL stocks

It wasn’t the best week… for Zac Jackson’s picks. Jon Greenberg hasn’t been that hot either. But they’re pros, so an extra week provides more opportunity for growth. And perhaps more victories than losses.

GREENBERG (4-4 last week, 41-31 overall): How did you enjoy a standalone evening of MACtion? I didn’t do much research on what to bet on Tuesday, but I looked at my friend Dan “Big Cat” Katz’s tweet advocating three overs and decided to take two unders because he noticed that he was freezing.

Of course, I ended up splitting them. Taking under 55 in this 500-point Buffalo-Ball State game is a true “hindsight is 20/20” moment.

Let’s move on to Wednesday’s games because I know I’m going to be busy with a Browns-like disaster unfolds at Halas Hall.

Bobcats line against visits Eastern Michigan rose by more than a point on Tuesday. I don’t know what to think about Eagles. They lost to Toledo from a point and Akron by four and are 7-2 against the spread. In the meantime, Ohio it’s hot, winning their last two matches against Buffalo And Kent State by a total of 72 points.

In honor of my laziness in Athens, let’s take the easy route and take Ohio-11, over 51.5 and all seniors over 1 1/2 shots at CI. As for the score, I feel 38-20.

Across the state, Golden Flashes visit bucolic Oxford and… yikes. A spread of 30.5 points? As far as I know, this is the first 30-point gap in MAC play since the end of the 2020 mock season, when Akron was a 33-point dog at Buffalo and lost 56-7.

Kent, of course, has lost five games by 30 points or more this season, including its last two games (41-0 to Ohio and 52-21 to Western Michigan). The program is winless and hopeless, but we don’t know who will start at quarterback. If it’s a walk-in freshman Ruel TomlinsonOuch. If it’s the other guy, a little softer, yeah.

The funny thing is that the difference is 30 points, but the total is 46.5. Do Miami blow them 50-0? I won’t bet until I have some certainty at QB, but for this exercise I guess I’ll roll the dice and take less than 47.5.

JACKSON (3-7, 34-38): First of all, I would like to move forward and continue to celebrate my Bowling Green’s preseason pick on six wins. THE Falcons I’m on six with two to play, and I’m also loaded with futures that involve BGSU advancing and winning the MAC title game.

Considering how the last week has gone for me in this space, that’s all I have to celebrate. So we’re focusing on the positives here and really gutting the entire list of coaching clichés. Too many distractions, but no excuses. One piece at a time. One choice at a time.

Timing also matters. I texted all my friends yesterday to tell them Ball Condition-Buffalo over 54 was a lock. I guess that says a lot about our position – and that we should have published it sooner.

One of my losses last week came because Kent State pulled a late upset and started a freshman at quarterback. Unsurprisingly, Kent State scored no points on its march to 0-12. My over lost miserably. I don’t know the situation tonight, but I can assure you that Kent State will not score more than three offensive points unless Tommy Ulatowski is back.

This is not a good MACtion Wednesday list. I’m already looking at Saturday, where I think I like Kansas +3 has BYU. Also add the moneyline. Kansas has been a different team in recent weeks, and it’s time for reality to hit BYU in the form of a real loss.

GREENBERG: Wow, thanks for the write-up on the Ball State-Buffalo game. But I like it Kansas +3 take. I didn’t see much that excited me on the varsity roster. So let’s stay local. What if Ohio StateNorthwest? A 28.5-point spread at neutral Wrigley Field? Too big for my taste, but I’ll take it over 44.5. If Northwestern can score 10 points, I’ll win. Am I missing something on Saturday?

JACKSON: I saw one this morning that I highly recommend: An SEC team to win the national title at +120. I just don’t trust the Ohio State quarterback Will Howardand I will try my luck against Oregon.

As for this week, I like Colorado -11.5 against. Utah. This line has moved up, likely because of Utah’s quarterback situation. Bonus for the playoffs? This seems likely.

Charlotte +3 against a shipwreck South Florida the team, and Temple -2.5 against a cast Florida Atlantic team. Yes, Temple as favorite. Let’s do it.

GREENBERG: You’re crazy about this one.

I bet against the Bengals last week because they were playing a good team, and it hit me because they lost and covered. This week I’ll face Joe Burrow and Co. again, this time on the road on Sunday Night Football against Jim Harbaugh and his immaculate vibe club. Give me Chargers -1.5.

THE Chefs are 9-0, if you haven’t heard, but they haven’t covered the last three weeks. Then again, they were favorites by a touchdown or more in every game. This time, they are underdogs (+2.5 to Buffalo) for the second time this season. (They were 2-point underdogs and beat San Francisco 28-18 last month.) They were 2.5 point dogs against the Bulls last year in the AFC Championship and won by 3. I’ll roll with the Leaders +2.5 Again.

I think a lot of people opt for the Steelers +3 at home, but looking at BetMGM’s numbers, as of this writing, 56 percent of bettors are taking the Crows. This makes me feel even better Pittsburgh +3.

JACKSON: I think I finally won some NFL choice last week. Believe me, I’m as surprised as the readers.

I will take it Bills -2.5. I know Patrick Mahomes as an underdog it’s something like 49-0 (don’t check my math), but I think the Chiefs are overdue for a loss. The Bills getting this one would set up a wild race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and that should count.

Mike Tomlin scores points during a home divisional game. He has something like 499-2 ATS there. (OK, he really is 60-31-3, a still ridiculous 65.4 percent.) I think I’ll have to follow up with Steelers +3. I’m also going to hold my nose and take the Raiders +8 in Miami. The Raiders may be the worst team in the league, but Miami just played Monday night in Los Angeles, and the Raiders are goodbye with a new offensive team. It should be close, right?

Don’t wait: take it Browns +4.5 next Thursday against the Steelers, who will have a wild win in Washington, then a blood and guts game against the Ravens, then a short-week road game. The Browns are terrible – I would know – but that’s too many points in this situation.

GREENBERG: We forget the game of the week: our guy Zach Collaros is playing his fifth consecutive Gray Cup and he faces Chad “Swag” Kelly and the Argonauts. Wait, check that out, Nick Arbuckle and the Argonauts. Kelly broke his leg during the CFL semi-final game in Toronto. I don’t know how swaggy Arbuckle is, but that explains the large spread.

Winnipeg is hot right now (no one ever typed that south of the border) and is a 9.5 point favorite. Their two games (two close victories in Toronto) this season have been low scoring, but the total is 49.5. Here’s a possible explanation: the totals for the last four Gray Cups were 45, 58, 47 and 52. When the lights shine in Canada, the points stand out. (Just like the Jonas Brothers, who play the halftime show.)

I will take Winnipeg will win by 1-6 points at +350 and the live-bet…something, I’m sure. I should go home and look at the Spot Bar. Let me ask my wife if she’s interested in this date night. Maybe Jason Kelce (Collaros Center in Cincinnati) will be in Vancouver on Sunday… shirtless as usual.

JACKSON: Collaros covered a number of games for me in November…while he was a quarterback and safety at Steubenville High. I wish him good luck.

Jon Greenberg’s choices

Zac Jackson’s choices

(Photo by Josh Allen: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)