Not even a month ago, Alabama Football was spiraling. Or so it seemed. Three weeks, two losses, both to Tennessee State. Forget the folder; the Crimson Tide played undisciplined and generally uninteresting football. The college football playoffs were disappearing. Forget the SEC championship game.

Fast forward to today, past wins over Missouri, LSU and Mercer, and coach Kalen DeBoer’s team is on track to not only advance to the CFP, but also earn a spot in Atlanta to play for a conference championship.

Seriously.

As hard as it is to believe, new SEC tiebreakers allow. It seems the main path is: Alabama beats Oklahoma and Auburn, and Missouri wins at least one game. These things happen, and the Crimson Tide comes into Atlanta with a 6-2 conference record, ahead of Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas/Texas A&M (depending on who wins that game) based on winning percentage of the conference opponent, according to this SEC tiebreaker calculator.

The next question is: Should Alabama fans be happy that an SEC title berth seems likely?

Is this a good thing?

In the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff, we don’t know yet. If Alabama made it to the conference championship and lost, it would earn a third loss. Would the CFP committee punish the Crimson Tide for playing an extra game and losing it?

For those who answer “yes”, the simple reason would be to point to an earlier season, even if the playoff format was different. Georgia entered the SEC Championship Game undefeated. Then Alabama and Nick Saban beat Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs again in Atlanta, and Georgia missed the playoffs.

The same thing could happen this season. One would think (hope?) that the SEC runner-up wouldn’t miss the expanded playoffs, but it’s too difficult to predict how the committee will think and operate. So that’s the risk you take going into the conference title game now and losing it.

There is, however, another way of looking at things.

If Alabama makes the SEC Championship Game, as seems likely, it has a chance to earn a first-round bye. By doing so, he also wouldn’t have to play an actual road game in the first round of the playoffs. Right now, it will be a challenge for Alabama to win a first-round playoff game at home at Bryant-Denny Stadium, depending on how the CFP rankings pan out. Impossible? No, but it seems more unlikely than not at this point.

So it’s best to assume that Alabama either plays a first-round CFP game on the road or wins the conference and gets a first-round bye, without playing until the quarterfinals.

Oh, and it’s worth mentioning that winning the SEC would be a very nice feather in the cap, securing the 31st conference championship in program history. Especially when it is now a 16-team league that many consider to be the best conference in the country.

Scared money doesn’t make money. Alabama coaches and players would likely relish the chance to win an SEC title and earn a first-round bye. Sure, the Crimson Tide might lose, but they also have a lot to gain. Additionally, Texas and Texas A&M, the two most likely opponents, have shown vulnerabilities.

Yet despite all of this, we can’t say with certainty right now that Alabama should want to enter the SEC Championship Game with the risk of losing it. There simply isn’t enough evidence in this new 12-team playoff format to speak conclusively.

Not sure how to feel about being an Alabama fan? Understandable. There is some good news, however.

No matter how you feel about the Crimson Tide being ready to make the conference title game, or even how Alabama players and coaches feel, it doesn’t really matter.

The Crimson Tide must win their next two games against Oklahoma and Auburn to stay alive for the College Football Playoff. Lose one and Alabama is all but eliminated from the CFP race. Win both, as you should, and Alabama will likely head to Atlanta.

It therefore stands to present two options, apart from feelings, thoughts and worries:

1. Missing the College Football Playoff (with another loss)
2. Play the SEC Championship Game (risk missing the playoffs with a loss or winning the conference and getting a first round bye)

Alabama would almost certainly choose the second option.