With the exception of Saskatchewan’s northernmost ridings, the Saskatchewan Party is leading or expected to win in every riding outside the province’s largest cities in the 2024 provincial election.

The NDP, meanwhile, is leading or expected to win almost every riding in Regina and Saskatoon, ousting several veteran ministers.

Despite this, future premier-designate Scott Moe said he disagreed with the idea that the election demonstrated an urban-rural divide in the province.

“I know, no matter who you voted for in this election, you did so because you wanted what was best for the province we know, love and live in,” said Moe.

“In this, I would say, each of us is united.”

Others – like former Saskatchewan Party Finance Minister Donna Harpauer – have said otherwise.

“I think this election is going to show that this divide is once again quite wide. That has been the case in the past. And it will be up to the new government to bridge that divide again and bring urban and rural areas together.”, she said in an interview Monday evening, before the final victory projection was made.

Harpauer also served as deputy prime minister and one of Moe’s most trusted cabinet members. This time, she did not seek re-election in her former district of Humboldt-Watrous.

What do the numbers say, say the experts?

In Regina, the NDP is projected to win 11 of 12 seats and is leading the rest. In Saskatoon, the party is leading or expected to win in all but two of the city’s 14 ridings.

The seats that weren’t projected are too close to call, with more mail-in ballots expected to be counted Wednesday and a final tally scheduled for Nov. 9.

The only seats projected for the NDP beyond the two cities are in the north of the province: the riding of Cumberland and Athabasca, a long-held NDP seat that has been narrowly lost in a 2022 by-election.

Experts say both parties failed to secure the seats they hoped for.

If the NDP maintains its position in Regina, it would be the first time since Saskatchewan. The party took power and was swept out of the city.

Saskatchewan. The party’s decline in popularity in major cities is a “pretty significant loss,” according to Charles Smith, associate professor of political science at St. Thomas More College at the University of Saskatchewan.

“They got the majority, there’s no doubt about it,” he said.

“But they have been virtually excluded in the two urban centers where the majority of people live, which suggests that there has been a fairly large rejection of their mandate in government.”

According to data from the latest 2021 census, the two major cities represent approximately 43.5 percent of the province’s population.

The expected loss of former Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre’s seat means the province’s next attorney general will likely be a non-lawyer, Smith said.

“We’re really going to look to a rural caucus that doesn’t have a lot of Cabinet experience,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan NDP has demonstrated a competitiveness it hasn’t achieved in a generation, Smith said, but early results show it hasn’t been enough to innovate in ridings beyond the city borders – which is also a fairly significant loss.

Saskatchewan. among provinces facing an urban-rural electoral divide

Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor in the political studies department at the University of Saskatchewan, said the rural-urban divide is not unique to Saskatchewan.

He pointed to the Manitoba election, where the Manitoba NDP dominated Winnipeg and the province’s largest northern ridings, but had less success in southern seats.

In Alberta, the Alberta NDP was strongest in Calgary and Edmonton — sweeping Edmonton and winning 14 of 26 seats in Calgary — but was not successful beyond those borders.

“This is an issue, I think, that the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP need to think about carefully,” Westlake said.

“When you look at broader trends like this, sometimes it’s harder to solve than a single party in a single province can solve. Sometimes you’re dealing with larger cultural and social phenomena that present a real challenge for politicians. »