The European record in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is surprisingly poor. Since the race was inaugurated in 2008, it has only been won three times by a trainer not based in North America (Flottille for Mikel Delzangles in 2012; Chriselliam, Charlie Hills, 2013 and Meditate, Aidan O’Brien, 2022).

It’s likely that record will be bettered this year, with O’Brien holding the key. According to the Racing Post rankings, Lake Victoria is the first filly trained in Europe and the best juvenile if we take into account her sex allocation.

Heading into this race, she has 12lbs in hand over her nearest rival, a draw in the first stall and the potential to further improve quite significantly on what she has achieved so far. Firmer terrain than she has faced before, rather than intensification of the journey, is the biggest question mark given her mother’s affinity for mud, but barring anything unforeseen, she should be very difficult fell.

European representation outside Lake Victoria is thin on the ground, including stablemate Heavens Gate, Fiery Lucy, trained by Gavin Cromwell, and Dave Loughnane’s Anshoda, all of whom have plenty to find fit.

Greater danger should therefore come from the American team, mainly in the form of Thought Process, undefeated on turf and particularly impressive in a Grade 3 at Santa Anita last time out.

Kilwin also deserves consideration after winning both of her starts convincingly. She’s taking a significant step in the journey, but has the pedigree to think it could be a good fit for her.

It is worth noting that Chad Brown, who is the main trainer of this race having won it six times, rides Virgin Colada. She finished behind the opposing Scythe in a Grade 2 a month ago, but she still had a long way to go compared to that horse and may well be able to reverse the form here.
Analysis by Matt Gardner

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Horses stretch their legs at Del Mar before the spectacular two-day kicks off FridayCredit: Edward Whitaker

Will it be Del Mar’s delight for star filly Lake Victoria?

Aidan O’Brien has no worries Lake Victoria breaking the mile for the first time as Europe’s best juvenile filly attempts to cap off her superb year with a third triumph at the highest level.

The exceptionally bred daughter of Frankel and star sprinter Quiet Reflection won the Moyglare Stud Stakes at 7f before dropping back to 6f to record a hugely impressive success in the Cheveley Park Stakes.

Lake Victoria is hoping to extend its unbeaten record to five and consolidate its position at the top of next year’s 1,000 Guineas market. O’Brien also saddles Group 3 winner Gate of Heavenwhich is Wayne Lordan’s mount.

O’Brien said: “Lake Victoria has been outstanding this year. Funnily Ryan (Moore, jockey) said she would be better over a mile after last time, so the team decided whether to go further a mile this year so this race would be great for her. She has a lot of class.

“Heavens Gate is doing better and her last work was very good. She is a big, strong filly and we are very happy with her. She could run a very big race.”

What they say

Mark Casse, coach of Nitrogen, See you soon And Vixen
If Nitrogen advances, she can be very competitive, but she needs a good break and some things to move forward. Abientot is running two laps for the first time, but his pedigree says he should like it. Vixen had a wide run in the Natalma Stakes and ran very well to be second at the neck. Johnny Velazquez will have to make a move from the outside (13).

Bill Mott, coach of Scythian
She looked like a nice filly, but I never thought about the Breeders’ Cup until she won at Aqueduct. She earned her spot and now we’ll see how she fits in.

Chad Brown, coach of Virgin Colada
I’m very interested to see her on firm ground, that’s what she wants. You’d think there would be a solid rhythm, and she has a very good foot movement – she just didn’t have the rhythm in front of her to show it.

Philippe d’Amato, coach of Thought Process
After his first win in August, we knew this was the way to go. She has speed but she doesn’t need to be in the lead. I expect to see her in the top four from the start.

Gavin Cromwell, coach of Fiery Lucy
She is so laid back and everything has gone perfectly so far. We are out (11), so he will need a little luck, but we are hoping for a big run. She has a lot of rhythm.
Reporting by Matt Rennie

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