It’s been a tough few years for the U.S. economy after it took a major hit from the global coronavirus pandemic, plunging growth and unemployment deep into the negative.

Then, as the economy and employment surged after lockdowns ended, restrictions were lifted and the world reopened for business, inflation sent prices soaring, weighing heavily on Americans’ incomes.

It’s no wonder, then, that polls conducted by Gallup and Pew ahead of the 2024 election found that the economy — and the desire for a stronger economy — was at the top of American voters’ minds.

Harris’ economic plan pledges to cut taxes on middle-class families, increase housing construction to lower rents and increase homeownership, fight inflation through a “federal ban price gouging” and help startups by expanding their tax deductions for expenses.

Trump’s economic agenda promises to “end inflation”, “end outsourcing” and protect US manufacturing with tariffs on imports, increase energy production by removing green regulations, reducing taxes on workers, such as no tax on tips, and extending its 2017 tax cuts.

As voters head to the polls, leading indicators suggest the economy is moving steadily forward. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy grew 2.8 percent in the third quarter of the year. And inflation stabilized, standing at 2.4 percent in September.

But the unemployment rate continues to rise, reaching 4.1 percent in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.8 percent a year earlier.

So what is the best plan for the US economy between Trump and Harris? News week ask economists to find out their point of view. Here’s what they said.

Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics

The U.S. economy will be better off and American workers will be better off if Vice President Harris wins the presidency because economic policy will remain largely unchanged.

As president, Harris will almost certainly face a Congress which will considerably limit any change in economic policy.

The first two years of his administration will be characterized by the political status quo. This suggests that current tax cuts for individuals, which expire at the end of next year, will be extended, as will the Affordable Care Act’s beefed-up subsidies.

There could also be some minor changes to tax law, including R&D tax credits and accelerated depreciation for businesses, which Republicans favor, and expanded child tax credits and earned income tax credits for working households, which Harris and the Democrats service.

There is an outside chance for comprehensive immigration reform given bipartisan support for such legislation earlier this year, which will stem the flow of illegal immigrants to the southern border but allow more legal immigration of those with the skills necessary professionals.

Former President Trump will likely impose higher tariffs and carry out expulsions of immigrants because he will do so under an executive order. So it doesn’t matter whether Congress is Republican-controlled or divided. These policies will lead to both higher inflation and interest rates and slower economic growth.

If Republicans win the election, there will also likely be more tax cuts, including for businesses, which will be largely deficit-financed. Deficit-financed tax cuts in a full-employment economy, such as the current one, are also inflationary and would result in higher interest rates and slower growth than would otherwise be the case.

The United States is currently strong and resilient and should therefore be able to weather most storms in the coming year, including the presidential election and its outcome.

Of course, this assumes that the election is not so controversial that it results in significant social unrest and that the next president and Congress are able to agree on a timely increase or suspension of the limit the Treasury’s debt before it runs out of cash and liquidity. defaults on its obligations next summer.

Brett Ryan, Senior U.S. Economist, Deutsche Bank

Our analysis suggests, at best, a modest boost to growth from the candidates’ economic plans.

Our base case assumes a full expansion of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and, relative to this base case, Trump’s additional tax cuts would boost growth by about 0.4 to 0.5% over the next two years.

For Harris, her calls for expanding the child tax credit and earned income credit could be worth 0.2 to 0.4 percent over the next two years.

The difficulty in evaluating Trump’s plans concerns tariffs. In our view, a 10% global tariff would act as a consumption tax that would reduce growth and potentially depress business spending in the short term.

We expect that an all-out trade war would negate any positive growth impact from Trump’s other policies and reduce growth relative to our baseline scenario.

Unfortunately, none of the candidates’ proposals address the unsustainable trajectory of federal deficits and debt.

Strikingly, they ignore the impending cuts to Social Security that would have to take place if the trust fund were depleted over the next ten years, as is currently planned.

In short, the winner of the 2028 presidential election will have to be the one who works hard to strengthen Social Security, given that neither party seems willing to seriously address this issue.

Claudia Sahm, chief economist, New Century Advisors

With inflation-adjusted growth well above the pre-pandemic trend and unemployment near historic lows, the U.S. economy will enter the new administration in a position of strength.

Despite this, the last four and a half years have highlighted economic problems such as the lack of affordable housing. Vice President Harris’ proposal to support the construction of millions of new homes would be an important corrective. Typically, the federal government is not a leader in housing construction, making success face obstacles.

Higher productivity growth is the “holy grail” of economic prosperity. Labor productivity growth has accelerated significantly in recent years.

Policies that can support new technologies, more inclusive workplaces and business creation are key to increasing productivity growth. There is no single policy to put forward. The details will matter. Implementation will be important.

The American economy is worth nearly $30 trillion. No one, including the president, controls economic outcomes. The United States will enter the new administration from a position of strength, but we must not take that for granted.

Recent growth does not guarantee future growth, and radical new policies, such as mass evictions, would almost certainly reduce growth.