After an 8-0 start including a 5-0 start in conference play, BYU sits atop the Big 12 standings. With the rivalry game on the horizon, we look at BYU’s four remaining games and discuss how many games BYU will need to win to make the Big 12 championship game, given the changes that occurred in the Big 12 over the weekend.

We will look at three scenarios:

1. BYU goes 4-0
2. BYU goes 3-1
3. BYU goes 2-2

Any record worse than 2-2 would eliminate BYU from title contention. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

BYU alone holds first place in the Big 12 rankings. If BYU wins, they enter. A 12-0 record would guarantee BYU a spot in the Big 12 championship game. FPI gives BYU a 16% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated.

If BYU goes undefeated, it’s not a question of whether or not they’ll make it, but rather who they’ll play. The Cougars would likely face Iowa State, Kansas State or Colorado. Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Arizona State and West Virginia also have very slim chances of making the title game. Kansas State and Iowa State face off in the final week of the regular season. This game could determine who BYU faces in Arlington if BYU goes 4-0.

According to FPI, 3-1 over the last four games is the most likely outcome for BYU. FPI says there’s a 39% chance BYU goes 11-1 and a 55% chance it finishes 11-1 or better.

If BYU goes 3-1 and Iowa State or Colorado suffers one more loss, BYU would be in the Big 12 Championship regardless of tiebreaker rules. This is the most likely scenario according to the FPI. The odds of Colorado and Iowa State finishing undefeated are just 3% according to the FPI.

In the unlikely scenario that BYU goes 3-1 and Colorado and Iowa State win, there would be a three-way tie for first place. How would this tiebreaker be determined? Let’s break it down.

These three teams did not play each other, so head-to-head tiebreaker rules would not apply. Here are the next tiebreaker rules in order:

B. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the winning percentage against all common conference opponents faced by all other teams involved in the tie.

The three common opponents between Iowa State, Colorado and BYU are Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, UCF and Utah.

BYU is currently 3-0 against common opponents. Iowa State is 2-0 and Colorado is 2-1. The only way to get a three-way tie is if Iowa State and Colorado win. Therefore, Iowa State would be 5-0 against common opponents and Colorado would be 4-1.

If BYU’s loss is to Utah or Kansas, Iowa State would win the tiebreaker at that point and second place would go to Colorado or BYU.

If BYU’s loss were to come against Arizona State or Houston, BYU would advance into the tiebreaker with Iowa State. Since both teams would be undefeated against common opponents, the tiebreaker would depend on strength of schedule, i.e. “combined winning percentage in conference games of conference opponents.” Iowa State would still win the tiebreaker in this scenario.

The race for second place would therefore go to BYU and Colorado. Two-team tiebreaker rules would apply. Two-way tiebreaker rules are similar to three-team tiebreaker rules. BYU would win the tiebreaker against Colorado and advance to the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU’s win against Kansas State would likely win the tiebreaker for the Cougars (unless the Wildcats completely collapse in the final part, which seems unlikely).

The date is 3/11/24 and BYU has some wiggle room to make the Big 12 championship game. A 3-1 record at this point will send the Cougars to Arlington.

2-2 is the bare minimum for BYU to have a chance to play in the Big 12 title game. FPI says there’s a 91% chance BYU is 2-2 or better. In other words, it’s very likely that BYU will be at least a factor in the Big 12 title race come November.

However, a 2-2 record would likely not get BYU into the Big 12 title game. There are currently eight teams with two or fewer losses in the Big 12. There is a potential tiebreaker at five teams for first place. At this point, the tiebreaker would likely depend on the strength of the conference schedule, and BYU would likely not win in that scenario. The combined winning % of BYU’s conference opponents is currently the lowest among BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State and Colorado.