The Rutgers-Eagleton poll shows that half say they would do nothing if their choice for president did not win; nearly one in five people would support legal challenges

A majority of registered voters in New Jersey say they have confidence in the legitimacy of the election process, whether looking back on 2020 or looking forward, according to a special Rutgers-Eagleton poll conducted in partnership with NJ Advance Media and the Miller Center on Policing and Community. Resilience at the Eagleton Institute of Politics.

Strong partisan differences prevail, however, with Republicans either disagreeing or agreeing to a lesser extent on the integrity of elections last cycle and this cycle.

Sixty-seven percent of voters believe President Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020, compared to 18% who believe he did not and 15% who are not sure. Nearly all Democrats believe Biden won fairly (96%). A majority of independents say the same (60%), although 4 in 10 in this group think he didn’t do it (18%) or are unsure (22%). Republicans are mixed: 30% say he legitimately won, 46% say he didn’t and 24% aren’t sure.

Looking to 2024, 81% say they will accept the outcome of the presidential election whether their choice wins or not; 5% say they won’t and 15% don’t know how they feel. While solid majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans say they will accept the 2024 results, independents are about twice as likely and Republicans about three times as likely as Democrats to say they are uncertain.

“Even in New Jersey, often considered a solidly blue state, a notable minority of voters doubt the legitimacy of the 2020 election and are unsure whether they will accept whatever happens on November 5,” said Ashley Koningassistant research professor and director of Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) to Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “New Jersey is similar to national public opinion on this issue, and these seeds of doubt, both statewide and nationally – even though they are not the majority – are why many voters feel worried and uncertain about what Election Day, and the days and weeks that follow, might bring. »

New Jersey voters generally trust the state’s handling of the election process more than the nation as a whole.

Jessica Romain

Director of Data Management and Analytics at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling

Additionally, a majority of New Jersey voters have some level of confidence that votes cast in person in the Garden State (60% “very,” 26% “somewhat”) will be counted the way voters want. during the November 5 election. They say they feel the same way about in-person votes cast across the country, although to a slightly lesser extent (50% “very” and 33% “somewhat”).

Mail-in and mail-in ballots inspire less confidence than in-person voting: Two-thirds of state voters are either “very” (40%) or “somewhat” (26%) confident that votes cast in New Jersey will be taken into account. as voters want, while 6 in 10 are either “very” (31%) or “somewhat” (30%) confident in the votes cast across the United States.

If their chosen candidate for president doesn’t win, half of voters say they will simply do “nothing” (50%). This feeling remains relatively stable among Democrats (45%), Republicans (51%) and independents (55%).

A small number of voters say they will carry out various activities if their choice does not prevail. Seventeen percent say they would support legal challenges; Republicans are especially likely to say this, at 25%, compared to 15% of Democrats and 13% of independents.

Eleven percent would volunteer for political or social causes; 9% would donate for or against a candidate, politician, issue or organization; and 8% would participate in a peaceful demonstration. All of these are more popular among Democrats than Republicans.

Three percent say they would leave the country and less than 1% say they would participate in a non-peaceful protest that could cause damage or harm; no significant difference by partisanship appears for either activity. Five percent say they would take further action.

“New Jersey voters generally trust the way the state handles the election process more than they trust the nation as a whole,” said Jessica Romaindirector of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “However, Garden State voters maintain some skepticism toward mail-in and mail-in ballots compared to in-person voting. Democrats trust this process more than their partisan counterparts, echoing the partisan divide in mail-in voting seen in the last presidential election.”

The results come from a statewide survey of 1,018 adults contacted through a probability survey. Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from October 15 to October 22. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 929 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.