Millions of Americans will head to the polls on Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, where voters in just a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward .

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have presented very different visions for America’s future, but polls show the two remain in an impasse.

“Any election in the United States is important and impactful for us,” said Kirsten Hillman, Canadian Ambassador to the United States. “They are essential to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner.”

Hillman traveled across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democratic teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties are over, she will watch the results with her husband and friends — and said she’d rather order pizza.

While gathering with loved ones can provide comfort in an anxious wait, Hillman knows better than most the immense issues at stake for Canada.

“Whoever sits in the Oval Office and populates Congress makes decisions that can affect Canada, whether they are decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that present us with challenges,” Hillman said. “The job is to be ready for both.”

A shared history and an 8,891 kilometer border will not protect Canada from the election outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn that if the Republican leader wins, relations between the neighbors could be much more difficult.

“Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick to Canada,” said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa. .

The first Trump administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada was to the whims of the United States when the former president abandoned the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiating its successor, the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement, was a key test for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. Whoever takes the helm of the White House this time will be in charge when the agreement is revised in 2026.

Trump’s proposed 10 percent across-the-board tariff is a source of concern in Canada and around the world. A report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggests these tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in economic costs of approximately $30 billion per year.

U.S. economists have warned that Trump’s plan could cause inflation or even a recession, which would almost certainly have repercussions in Canada. More than 77 percent of Canadian exports go to the United States and trade represents 60 percent of Canada’s gross domestic product.

“When the U.S. economy is growing, it’s generally good for us,” Hampson said. “If they take a deep dive under Trump…that will have a ripple effect on us, in addition to the tariffs.”

The election outcome could also redefine America’s role in the world. Trump criticizes aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, has attacked the United Nations and has repeatedly said he will not defend NATO members who fail to meet their goals on defense spending – something Canada isn’t doing and won’t do for years.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to achieve the goal of spending the equivalent of 2% of GDP on defense by 2032.

Trump’s first term also saw the Republican leader withdraw from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty aimed at reducing greenhouse gases.

Hampson said Republican pressure against international institutions and treaties will have “a profound impact” on Canada, but also on its key allies and on the world order itself.

If Harris wins, relations are widely expected to be more normal, based on established patterns and rules, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be smooth sailing for Canada.

The vice president is expected to follow the path set by President Joe Biden on foreign policy and trade with Canada.

Biden signed an executive order to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Buy America procurement rules have also raised concerns in Canada.

Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, said she expects a Harris administration to continue its nationalist and protectionist policies.

Harris spoke on the campaign trail about voting against the trilateral trade deal and said she would bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

It’s a great slogan and a great bumper sticker, Dawson said, “but it’s terrible if you’re Canada.”

Dawson warned Trudeau’s team at a ministerial retreat in August that whoever the next president is, Canada will have to work harder to maintain the existing benefits of integrated trade and travel.

Meanwhile, many Americans are caught between anxiety and excitement. Gavin Kupcho, 16, attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin last week.

“I’ve never felt so excited in my life,” he said. “I need lower gas prices since I just got my license.”

The situation looks more dire for Antonio White, who traveled from Miami to Milwaukee to knock on Harris’ doors in a crucial battleground state. The 63-year-old said America was at a tipping point “where people no longer recognize fascism when they see it.”

“This is an election that we have to win for the sanctity of everyone, for the country itself,” he said.

“This time, democracy is on the ballot.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published November 5, 2024.