NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) – Tropical Storm Rafael is moving across the Caribbean and is expected to continue strengthening into a hurricane.

As of midday Tuesday, Rafael’s center was located west of Jamaica. It had sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and was moving northwest at a speed of 14 miles per hour.

Rafael is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane before hitting the Cayman Islands and western Cuba on Wednesday.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for these areas and tropical storm warnings are in place for central Cuba and the Florida Keys.

Once Rafael enters the Gulf, it is expected to remain a powerful Category 1 hurricane and turn westward. It is expected to maintain its strength through Thursday or Friday as it moves through the loop current.

Forecast uncertainty increases in the long term due to steering mechanisms in the upper levels and the impacts of strong wind and colder water temperatures on Rafael.

Modeling diverges by the weekend, as some models take the storm westward and maintain its strength as a tropical storm, while others show the system reaching the northern Gulf Coast where it collapses quickly.

In this case, our area would potentially experience wind and rain, but the system would weaken very quickly as it is torn apart by wind shear. We will also monitor coastal and offshore impacts.

Continue to monitor the forecast for any changes during the week, but weekend plans are still good for now as impacts could be minimal.

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