This won’t happen? : Russia’s long-delayed Tupolev PAK DA bomber, codenamed “Poslannik,” aims to replace aging bombers like the Tu-95 Bear. Although slower than other bombers, the PAK DA focuses on advanced stealth capabilities and can carry nuclear warheads and hypersonic missiles.

-However, its development has suffered constant setbacks since 2007, compounded by engine problems and diversion of resources to the Ukrainian conflict.

-With deployment planned by 2027, Russia faces a growing strategic gap as U.S. and Chinese stealth bombers advance. Despite the delays, Russia may prioritize the PAK DA, driven by necessity in an increasingly competitive global arms race. However, Moscow has a long history of making grand military demands, without ever achieving their goals.

Code name “Poslannik” (which means “envoy” or “messenger” in Russian), the Russian Tupolev PAK DA bomber is the new toy of the Russian aerospace forces. It is a long-range stealth strategic bomber intended to ultimately replace the aging Bear Tu-95 bomber. The Poslannik has a projected scope of 12,000 km (7,500 miles) and can remain airborne for 30 hours while carrying a nuclear payload.

The new Russian warbird is a bit slow. It cannot reach supersonic speeds. But, according to the designers of the Tu PAK DA, the emphasis was less on speed and more on stealth capabilities.

In fact, the plane’s designers have argued that the plane’s slower speed allows it to carry a larger payload that includes not only nuclear weapons, but also Russia’s innovative hypersonic missiles. The Poslannik bomber is rumored to have a payload capacity of 30 tons, which exceeds maximum payload capacity of the US Air Force B-2 stealth bomber. In fact, the PAK DA bomber has elements that those familiar with stealth aircraft would recognize from the American B-2 stealth bomber.

Like America’s stealth bombers, Russia’s Tu-PAK DA is controlled by a powerful suite of sophisticated computers that do everything from maintaining flight control to monitoring enemy movements.

The PAK DA looks like a Marvel comic book villain’s plane

Tupolev creators believe that the PAK DA’s superior stealth technology, coupled with its ability to launch hypersonic payloads, eliminates the need to outrun enemy air defenses. It should be noted, however, that a persistent problem in the design of Russian bombers concerns their engines. When Tupolev designed the Tu-95, for example, they opted making the long-range nuclear-capable bomber a turboprop aircraft rather than a turbojet aircraft, as is the American B-52 Stratofortress.

It is possible that the Russians are again have problems with their engines for this new fifth generation stealth bomber and they are simply foregoing the acquisition of more powerful engines.

Looking like something a Marvel Comics villain would steal, the Tupolev PAK DA is probably Russia’s best attempt at using stealth technology. I say “probably” because the warbird has not yet taken flight. Russian sources report that Moscow plans to deploy the Tu-PAK DA Poslannik into service at some pointby 2027, with most agreeing that it will be closer to 2027. The problem facing Russia is that the longer the stealth bomber deployment is delayed, the greater Russia’s offensive air capability gap.

In the meantime, the Russians have improved their Tu-160 “White Swan” bombers to continue to fulfill mission-critical roles. Although these planes are not of the fifth generation series and, therefore, Moscow ultimately wishes to place the Tu-PAK DA as its primary bomber in the current era of anti-access/area denial warfare (A2/AD). This gave rise to speculation in the West that the Tu-PAK DA Poslannik Never fly.

After all, it has been in development since 2007.

Facing delays for 17 years (and counting), regardless of aircraft progress, now that the war in Ukraine has broken out and is diversion If considerable Russian resources are not allocated to such projects, such as the Tu-PAK DA bomber, more delays can be expected.

PAK DA is not ready for Showtime

The Russians have been lying for several years about the progress of the development of the Tu-PAK DA. After all, the Russians were supposed A demonstration aircraft should be ready for use by 2023. Now the Russian Defense Ministry says it won’t be until next year, two years after it was originally supposed to be ready for use , that a demonstration Tu-PAK DA will be available.

And the longer the deployment of the Tu-PAK DA takes place, the more the Russian Air Force’s capacity gap widens. Not only did the Americans get ahead of the Russians with the recent successful demonstration of B-21 bomberbut the Chinese have acquired their own long-range stealth bomber, the H-20which, according to Beijing, can “bomb more” US Air Force installations in the Indo-Pacific.

One thing working in Russia’s favor is the fact that the war in Ukraine has forced its manufacturing sector onto a war footing – and it will likely remain so for some time to come.

Will Russia be able to keep pace with stealth planes?

Yet Russian aerospace companies are struggling to meet growing demand for their products. This was particularly felt in the Su-35 seriesa “fourth generation++” combat aircraft. The Russians nevertheless remain in the fight. Additionally, as I noted previously, the Russians are winning and are likely to defeat Ukraine (and their NATO backers) simply through attrition.

Inevitably, the Russians will have to prioritize the creation of their Tu-PAK DA bomber.

Otherwise, they will have left a significant strategic void that the Americans can fill with their B-21s.

As an American, I hope this remains the case. But after two years of war in Ukraine, Americans should learn never to underestimate the Russians. Their society is constrained by necessity, the kind of necessity that total war engenders. At some point they will get the correct Tu-PAK DA.

About the author

Brandon J. Weicherta national security project of national interest analystis a former congressman and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is now available from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons.