Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has sparked intense debate in US and Ukrainian media about what his return to the White House means for Ukraine. In kyiv, officials fear that Trump could cut U.S. military aid, dash Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO and lead to the loss of Donbass — at the very least. Meanwhile, in Washington, the president-elect’s advisers have already launched plans to freeze the conflict along the current front line, establish a demilitarized zone and deploy peacekeeping forces (provided that ‘no American troops are involved). Here’s how Ukrainians are reacting to Trump’s upcoming presidency and what signals his camp has sent about America’s future role in the war.

The view of Kyiv

With Donald Trump’s return to the White House now a reality, reactions in Ukraine range from cautious optimism to deep anxiety. While some fear the Trump administration could cut crucial military aid and embolden the Kremlin, others hope it will pursue a more decisive approach to supporting Ukraine.

Write for European Pravdaeditor Sergiy Sydorenko and journalist Oleh Pavliuk warned that Trump’s victory likely dashes any chance of Ukraine joining NATO and could force European leaders to take more responsibility for aiding kyiv. Without explaining why, Sydorenko and Pavliuk argued that a formal NATO invitation to Ukraine – a cornerstone of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan” – would only have been feasible if the Democratic candidate , Kamala Harris, was elected. According to PolicyHowever, the United States is one of seven NATO member states opposed to an immediate membership proposal for Ukraine.

At the same time, Sydorenko and Pavliuk suggested that President Biden could still provide significant support to Ukraine even after his term ends. This could include removing some “red lines,” such as restrictions on supplying Kiev with long-range weapons.

Some Ukrainian analysts are not entirely pessimistic. Volodymyr Fesenko, political scientist, believes that Trump’s victory is not the worst scenario for Ukraine. “It would be much more damaging if the United States plunged into political turmoil,” which could jeopardize American support for kyiv “indefinitely,” he said. In an interview with RBC Ukraine, Fesenko noted that a Harris victory coupled with a Republican-controlled Senate and possibly House could also have proven difficult for Ukraine. However, he still expects U.S. aid to decline significantly and change shape under Trump.

“Financial and budgetary aid will almost certainly stop,” Fesenko told RBC Ukraine. “This is not just Trump’s position, but also that of many Republicans. Trump is counting the money and the free aid will not continue. Military support could take the form of loans or lend-lease programs. Financial decisions will fall to the new Congress. We may not see rapid action, but perhaps by early December we could start hearing new ideas and proposals.

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Concerns about U.S. support are palpable among Ukrainian officials. Citing several Ukrainian officials and military advisers, The Financial Times reported that many Ukrainian military personnel fear that a Trump presidency would lead to a cessation of American military aid, which would cost “at least” kyiv Donbass. “We need to convince Trump to be with us,” one official told the outlet, calling U.S. support “a matter of life and death” for Ukraine.

Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum at think tank Chatham House, echoed concerns about a potential shift in US policy under Trump. Talk to The Guardianshe warned that Trump’s presidency could be a “gift to the Kremlin” unless Zelensky can persuade him to support kyiv’s approach. However, she also highlighted a sense of frustration in kyiv over President Biden’s policies, as well as cautious optimism that Trump might suddenly adopt a more interventionist strategy.

Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Verkhovna Rada’s foreign affairs committee, also said he was “cautiously optimistic” about Trump. “He wants to be a successful president and success means that Ukraine must become a success story for him and not a failure story,” Merezhko told the Financial Times.

The Trump team’s plan(s)

Donald Trump has yet to approve any specific plans from his advisers on how to end the Russian-Ukrainian war and bring Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table, according to the Wall Street Journal. reported Wednesday, citing sources close to the president-elect.

According to The Journal, all ideas presented to Trump differ sharply from the approach taken by current President Joe Biden, who left the decision on when to begin negotiations to kyiv. Instead, Trump’s advisers have suggested freezing the conflict along the current front line, which would mean Ukraine ceding about 20 percent of its territory and temporarily halting talks about joining the bloc. Ukraine to NATO.

Three people familiar with Trump’s thinking told the Journal that one idea would involve kyiv pledging not to seek NATO membership for at least the next 20 years. In exchange, the United States would continue to supply weapons to Ukraine to prevent another Russian attack. This proposal envisions a demilitarized zone spanning 800 miles, although it is unclear who would oversee this zone. One source stressed that any peacekeeping force would not include U.S. troops or U.S.-funded units, including those from the United Nations.

This proposal aligns with remarks made by new Vice President JD Vance, who in a September interview suggested that a deal between kyiv and Moscow could include a heavily fortified demilitarized zone to deter future Russian aggression. Under this framework, Russia would retain control of the territories it has already seized and would receive guarantees of neutrality from Ukraine.

Former Trump advisers Keither Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who held key positions during his first term, also outlined a plan to end the war, details of which were revealed for the first time. reported by Reuters in June. The proposal suggests that Washington should withhold military aid to kyiv unless it agrees to negotiate peace with Moscow. At the same time, the United States would warn Russia that refusal to engage in negotiations would result in increased American support for Ukraine. The plan also envisages a ceasefire agreement based on existing front lines.

“Which of these strategies Trump will pursue – in whole, in part or not at all – is unclear,” the Wall Street Journal noted, emphasizing that any attempt to begin peace talks will face significant obstacles, notably the very divergent military objectives of the two countries. Russia and Ukraine, with little desire for compromise on either side. The Kremlin, in particular, has shown little interest in negotiations amid its advances in the Donbas region. Resistance from some of Washington’s NATO allies, who view Russian aggression against Ukraine as a direct threat to their own security, could further complicate matters, the Journal adds.

“I will speak to one, I will speak to the other”

On election night, Donald Trump addressed his supporters in Florida, declaring himself president-elect and promising to “stop wars” – although he did not specify which ones.

In the spring of 2023, Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war against Russia. At the time, Trump said he was focused on “fixing the problem” and wanted “everyone to stop dying.” He also claimed that he could end the war in “24 hours” if elected president, although he proposed no concrete measures to achieve this goal.

In June 2023 interview According to Reuters, Trump suggested that Ukrainian authorities may have to cede some of the country’s territory to Russia in order to end the war. However, he added that Ukrainians deserve “a lot of credit” for defending their land.

“I think (the Ukrainians) would have the right to keep a lot of what they have won and I think Russia would also agree with that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don’t have that right now,” Trump said. “I think the most important thing the United States should do right now is make peace – bring Russia and Ukraine together and make peace. »

Later interview Speaking to NBC News, Trump refused to share details of how he planned to end the war, saying that revealing his strategy would mean losing “all of (his) bargaining chips.” “But I would say certain things to Putin. I would say certain things to Zelensky,” he remarked.

Asked about the subject during a debate with Biden in June 2024, Trump called Putin’s conditions for ending the conflict are unacceptable. He then argued that the United States should never have spent so much money on the war and claimed he would broker a resolution between Putin and Zelensky before even taking office if elected.

In a subsequent debate with Harris, Trump was asked if he wanted Ukraine to win. He evaded the question, answer that his priority was to end the war. “What I will do is talk to one, I will talk to the other,” he said, referring to Putin and Zelensky. “I’ll bring them together.”