The Kansas City Chiefs maintained their undefeated season in Week 10 thanks to a last-second field goal block against the Denver Broncos that secured a 16-14 comeback victory. They are now 9-0 on the season with a highly anticipated matchup against the 8-2 Buffalo Bills scheduled for Week 11.

The Chiefs, however, have looked anything but dominant in their “perfect” start to the season. This has nothing to do with the 2007 Patriots, that’s for sure. Despite this, bettors at DraftKings Sportsbook have reduced Kansas City’s odds of going undefeated to +450, which represents an implied probability of 18.2% of that happening.

It’s a lousy bet. The Chiefs are 2.5 point underdogs and +110 on the moneyline at DraftKings against the Bills this week. They still have games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and Broncos, all teams currently with records of .500 or better, left on their schedule.

The Las Vegas Raiders game will take place the day after Thanksgiving on a short week and the Steelers game will take place on Christmas Day on a short week. Either could be a disappointing game.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Chiefs odds to remain undefeated at +800, a much better number but still not high enough to warrant a bet.

If you want to bet that the Chiefs will go undefeated, the smart play is to bet their moneyline each week and pay out the profits. Here’s why.

If you bet $100 on them to go undefeated at +450 odds and they do so, you win $450. But if you bet $100 on it to beat the Bills at +110 odds, you win $110. They play the Panthers and Raiders the next two weeks, and their money odds will be bad, something in the -600 range. If you hit $110 with these odds, you’ll win around $128 after the Panthers game and around $150 after the Raiders game.

From there, the compound growth of your initial bet will take you north of $450 if you bet the Chiefs moneyline against the Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers and Broncos to finish the season. Even though the Chiefs will likely be favored in all of these games, the initial bet will increase enough to get you over that $450 figure.

The other benefit of betting this way is that it gives you a free pass if another injury hits the Chiefs or if the Chiefs decide to rest players later in the season, something Andy Reid is known for.

If you bet that they will remain undefeated, you will be stuck in that bet if any of these scenarios occur. If you bet them on the moneyline every week, you can stop whenever you want.

Odds of +800 are better, but still don’t protect you if something unexpected happens.

The good news against the Bills this week is that the Chiefs are 11-3 as an underdog with Patrick Mahomes as the starter. They were underdogs when they played Buffalo in last year’s AFC Divisional Playoffs and won 27-24. Mahomes won his only other start in Buffalo in 2020. Overall, he is 4-3 against the Bills all-time, although he is 1-3 against them in the regular season.

Mahomes is 40-6 in his career against other teams remaining on the Chiefs’ schedule.

The Chiefs could remain undefeated this season. They haven’t looked dominant, but they continue to find ways to win. In the NFL, winning when you’re not playing well says a lot about the coaching and mentality of the players.

Despite this, there is a smarter way to bet them at 17-0, and it is not a straight bet with odds of +450. It involves betting on the moneyline and redistributing your winnings, which offers a large potential win at the end of the season, but also an opportunity to stop betting if something goes wrong.

Ratings are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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