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Security experts predict US military footprint in Australia will grow under Trump
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Security experts predict US military footprint in Australia will grow under Trump

A Marine observes an M110 semi-automatic sniper system in Darwin, Australia.

Marine Corps Staff Sgt. Alex Aman looks at an M110 semi-automatic sniper system at Robertson Barracks in Darwin, Australia, April 5, 2024. (Juan Torres/US Marine Corps)


Australia, already partnering with the Pentagon on several fronts, would welcome an even greater US presence under President-elect Donald Trump, Australian defense experts said on Wednesday.

The United States has sent increasing numbers of troops to the West Indies since 250 Marines began their annual rotation in the northern port of Darwin in 2012.

The force, which operates in Australia from April to October, now has more than 2,000 members.

Australian security researchers predict the United States under Trump will accelerate its growing military presence in their country as it seeks to deter China and disperse its forces to make them less vulnerable to enemy missiles.

Australia is already spending $450 million in U.S. funds to build air bases in the Northern Territory to accommodate rotations of U.S. B-52 Stratofortress bombers, Air Force Commander Gen. Kevin Schneider said in July. Peaceful.

And the United States and the United Kingdom are building five nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, under the AUKUS pact, for deployment in 2027, the first delivery of a program expected to cost $250 billion over three decades.

The Trump administration will seek to increase the size of the Marine rotational force several-fold, Australian defense researcher Allan Orr said by email Tuesday.

“Probably at least 10,000 Marines and probably permanent if they get what they want,” he said.

Australia would prefer a permanently stationed force of 10,000 to 20,000 troops, Orr said, adding that the Marines should move forces from Japan to Australia as soon as possible.

“Moving these positions from a country where their presence is the subject of much more political protest to Australia and out of most Chinese missile ranges would be ideal for both sides,” he said.

The U.S. and Australian governments have wanted to increase the U.S. military presence for more than a decade, Orr said.

“If anything, America’s footprint is evolving too slowly,” he said.

Australia needs to add missile defense, more runways for strategic bombers and enough troops to ensure the deployment deters China, Orr added.

Mike Green, head of the Center for United States Studies in Sydney, told The Australian in a Nov. 7 article that stepped-up U.S. deployments to Australia would be part of a bipartisan plan for a more distributed military posture across the region.

“They will arrive on day one and want to accelerate defense cooperation with Australia,” he told the newspaper. “If there’s a problem, frankly, it’s that the (Australian) government is going to come under pressure to spend more on defence.”

Australian military spending roughly matches NATO’s target of 2% of gross domestic product.

“He (Trump) may also seek a further increase in our defense budget – perhaps up to 3% of GDP – within a few years,” Australia’s former deputy defense secretary said by email on Wednesday. , Ross Babbage.

It is possible the Trump administration wants Australian units to operate more frequently with US forces in the Far East and for Australia to accelerate its efforts to build missiles to supply Australian and US units, he said .

“Further US operations in and from Australia are expected over time and are almost always universally welcomed here,” he said. “They are rarely controversial.”

However, Paul Buchanan, a US security expert based in New Zealand, said Trump could reduce US involvement in the Indo-Pacific.

“The MAGA (Make America Great Again) people are neo-isolationists,” he said Wednesday by telephone. “They want to withdraw American military commitments around the world. »

The U.S. Congress backed away from the AUKUS commitment, saying it distracted from efforts to increase the U.S. submarine force, Buchanan said.

“I’m not convinced that (Trump) sees the Western Pacific as a priority region,” he said.