The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a “high” risk of developing a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

But what does this mean for the Tampa Bay area?

Here are ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips’ thoughts from Tuesday:

• We will likely have Hurricane Sara in the Caribbean later this week. He will probably stay there until Sunday or Monday.
• High pressure will prevent it from entering the Gulf until early next week. At this point it will likely move to Florida or the Bahamas…probably Florida.
• Strength is IMPOSSIBLE to predict at this point. If it stays longer over the Yucatan (Euro AI), it will be much weaker and move north towards the enclave. This model merges it as a remnant low with a cold front coming this way. A STRONG cold front with the coldest weather in a long time arriving next weekend. If it misses the Yucatan (or brushes against it), Sara will likely be much stronger and could arrive in Florida next Wednesday as a hurricane. Again, at this point and for the next 5 days, there is no way to know exactly where it is entering the Gulf. This will especially have an impact on its landing force.
• I’ve put my Christmas decorations on hold for the moment. Not that I think we see it, but why take the risk? Chasing a 12-foot Frosty down the street seems pointless. Yes, a lot of people have asked for it.
• That’s about it. As always, expect 24/7 forecasts (without the hype) for next week. This is what we do.

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