LAS VEGAS — Max Verstappen’s fourth world championship, won Saturday evening under the neon lights of Las Vegas Boulevard, cemented his place among Formula 1’s all-time greats.

This was a championship victory unlike his previous three. In 2021, he faced Lewis Hamilton during the season, with the two men competing in a straight fight. 2022 and 2023 have been years of dominance for Verstappen, with any threat to his supremacy proving fleeting at best.

The year 2024 was different, even though the year started like 2023 ended. Verstappen dominated from the start, but Red Bull lost its leading position. Not one, but three teams – McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes – emerged as persistent threats. Red Bull’s crisis, particularly its impact on Sergio Pérez’s form, is set to cost him the constructors’ championship for the first time since 2021.

Seven different drivers have achieved victories this year. Although Verstappen’s immense ability got him over the line to win the championship, the tougher competition hints at what he can expect in 2025. Given the stability of the regulations and the need for teams to devote as much time and effort as possible to completely overhauling the rules. for 2026, most expect the pecking order to remain largely the same: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes – then everyone else.

As the title defense unfolds, 2025 is already shaping up to be an even bigger test for Verstappen.

Is Lando Norris the (far too much) early favorite?

F1 has long yearned for this kind of open, close competition at the front of the pack. Cost caps, introduced in 2021 to promote financial stability, have made it harder for teams to spend their way out of difficulties. Car upgrades and development must be carefully planned.

McLaren’s rise over the past two seasons, which could culminate with its first constructors’ title in 26 years, proves that things have to be done right. Each update added to the MCL38 car throughout 2024 has delivered a step forward in performance, giving Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri the chance to regularly battle at the front.

In 2024, Lando Norris has established himself as a constant threat to Verstappen. (Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Norris took the opportunity to pose the most serious threat against Verstappen. Norris’ first chance to properly compete in a title fight brought some hard lessons to learn. Often his own harshest critic, the Briton has taken full responsibility – perhaps even too much – for the mistakes made at certain times of the year which temporarily reduced the pressure on Verstappen.

Norris will likely enter 2025 as the championship favorite based on his form after McLaren took a big step forward with his car around Miami. Since the start of the second half of the season in Hungary, he has dominated Verstappen, taking dominant victories at Zandvoort and Singapore in a manner reminiscent of Verstappen over the past two years.

It proved to Norris that, in his words, “I have what it takes” to challenge for a championship. He admitted Wednesday in Las Vegas that he was “definitely not at the level I needed at the start of the year,” only to produce “by far some of my best performances that I’ve done” during of the second half of the year. the season.

Norris explained that it would also lead to a very different approach to that of the whole of McLaren in 2025. Not chasing it again would be “going into a season with the mindset of trying to win it”, he declared. “It’s a very different mindset than we had this year.” Resetting a new season could be big for Norris.

But he is not the only McLaren driver considering a title bid.

In only his second season, Piastri justified the fact that McLaren fought so hard for his services in 2022. While his first victory in Hungary came in strange circumstances as McLaren insisted on his team’s orders , the way he controlled the proceedings in Baku proved his star. quality. There needs to be another step up in form – Norris leads head-to-head qualifying 18-4 – to truly match Norris, but the positive signs are there.

Just as he has done in recent months, Verstappen may have to fend off a double McLaren threat in 2025.

Hamilton and Leclerc are expected to form a powerful duo at Ferrari next season. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images)

Hamilton’s pursuit of eighth title renews at Ferrari

Hamilton’s long and successful career at Mercedes is coming to a disappointing end. Just months removed from the thrill of ending his win drought at Silverstone and the legacy victory at Spa, he admitted on Sky after the race in Brazil, where he struggled to 10th, that he “could happily go away and take a vacation.”

The upcoming move to Ferrari for 2025 is one that, a few months ago, might have seemed ill-advised. Mercedes was on the rise during the summer European races and Ferrari suffered a dip in form. Those roles have reversed since the August break, so much so that Ferrari is now chasing McLaren for the constructors’ title. Mercedes is 175 points behind Hamilton’s future team.

Hamilton recently admitted he was closely monitoring Ferrari’s progress, although he remained focused on finishing in style with Mercedes. Whatever the outcome of the constructors’ battle, Ferrari is expected to be a threat from the start of next year to win races, giving Hamilton hope he can challenge for a record eighth drivers’ title.

The other interesting dynamic in Hamilton’s move to Ferrari is how he will compare to Charles Leclerc, a driver considered to have championship-winning caliber when given the right car.

Leclerc has been the leader at Ferrari for some time and is on a long-term contract for a reason. Victories at Monaco, Monza and Austin made it his most successful season to date, and without Ferrari’s dip in form mid-season, there’s good reason to think Leclerc would have been as much if not more of a success. threat to Verstappen than Norris.

Much of the focus will be on Hamilton when he moves to Ferrari early next year and whether that could be the turning point that gives him one last run of success to cap off his record-laden record. trophies. F1 career. But Leclerc is also ready to fight for a championship. Amid the inevitable discussions about Hamilton’s performance level towards the end of this year, as he approaches his 40th birthday, comparing the two Ferrari drivers will be illuminating.

Either way, Verstappen will have to keep an eye on the red cars in his rearview mirrors next year.

And what about Mercedes?

Hamilton’s recent disappointing form has not been felt within the Mercedes team. George Russell felt he could have won in the rainy Brazil race without stopping before the red flag, and he took the pole in Las Vegas after the team swept practice.

George Russell has proven himself more than capable of carrying Mercedes into 2025. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

It reminds us that when Mercedes does everything right, it can still threaten Ferrari and McLaren. Russell will enter 2025 as team boss for the first time when 18-year-old Mercedes protégé Andrea Kimi Antonelli joins him. Despite the hype surrounding Antonelli, expectations for his rookie season will naturally have to be managed, meaning Russell will naturally have to spearhead his efforts.

The challenge for Mercedes will be to finally remedy the difficulties encountered with its car within the framework of this generation of regulations. Since 2022, he has failed to fight regularly at the forefront, his form blowing from hot to cold, sometimes from session to session.

Finally understanding that the final year of the regulatory cycle would be too little, too late, but it could at least provide some hope of returning to the stock list.

Verstappen will remain very difficult to beat

The potential for all three teams to challenge Red Bull in 2025 is tantalizing. But we have to take into account the strength of Verstappen next year.

He proved during the second half of 2024 that even without the fastest car, he is still capable of achieving big results and fighting against drivers like Leclerc, Norris and Russell. Red Bull has worked to understand the balance issues that emerged midway through the season with its Austin update package, offering some encouragement. If he can fully resolve this issue for next year and restore Verstappen’s confidence in the car, he could still get a head start.

For Norris, this remained the biggest challenge. Regardless of the car’s relative performance, anyone who wants to dethrone Verstappen would still have to defeat him.

Max Verstappen will aim for his fifth career championship in 2025. (Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

“I don’t think you’re likely to ever have a much better driver than Max in Formula 1 again,” Norris said. “It’s my opinion but it’s what I believe in and for me to come up against that belief, to fight against this person that I know is so good, it takes a little more than I probably realized this season.

“But I think what I’ve done since summer break is closer to what I need to do, and I think it’s almost good enough to fight for it next year.”

Carlos Sainz, the outgoing Ferrari driver, will likely have to watch the lead battle in 2025 from afar during his move to Williams. But he was excited about how this season ended.

“It just shows that it can go anywhere,” Sainz said. “When you have four teams in the two-tenths and they have a whole winter to work on the car and improve it, those two-tenths could quickly change positions and create a different favorite. So, for me, the four teams could be in the fight.

Speaking to the show after the race, with the iconic fountains of Las Vegas’ Bellagio cascading behind him, the four-time reigning F1 champion acknowledged the challenge ahead of him in defending his throne.

“If you look at next year now, I think it will be a real battle between a lot of cars,” Verstappen said.

Top photo: Getty Images; Design: Kelsea Petersen/Athletics