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Central banks extend easing cycle in November as uncertain 2025 looms
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Central banks extend easing cycle in November as uncertain 2025 looms

By Karin Strohecker and Sumanta Sen

LONDON (Reuters) – Monetary easing by central banks in developed and emerging economies continued in November, with markets warily preparing for a new year that could bring tectonic shifts in the global political landscape.

Four of the six central banks overseeing the ten most traded currencies that held their meetings in November lowered their lending standards. The central banks of New Zealand and Sweden each cut interest rates by 50 basis points, while the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

Policymakers in Australia and Norway decided to leave interest rates unchanged, while their peers in Switzerland, Japan, Canada and the European Central Bank held no rate-setting meetings.

The outcome of the US elections, which will see Donald Trump return to the White House on January 20, is expected to fuel further trade tensions that could boost US inflation and dampen growth.

These latest moves come ahead of potentially significant shocks to the global economy, as policy is expected to become increasingly unpredictable, said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities.

“Gaming in 2025 is now uncertain, especially in the United States and Europe,” Rossiter said. “Central banks will have to quickly adapt their strategies.”

The latest moves by G10 central banks bring total rate cuts to 650 basis points since the start of the year, almost matching 2020’s total of 655 basis points, after major central banks made no reductions between 2021 and 2023.

Across emerging markets, 12 of 18 developing economy central banks selected by Reuters held rate-setting meetings in November. South Korea, Mexico, South Africa and the Czech Republic each cut their rates by 25 basis points while China, Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, Israel, Hungary and Poland kept their rates unchanged.

Brazil extended its rate hike cycle, increasing its key rates by 50 basis points.

Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said a change in outlook, with fewer rate cuts from the Fed following the US election, would shape policymaking in developing economies.

“We also expect greater caution from most major emerging market central banks, and have therefore lowered our expectations for their interest rate cuts in 2025,” Oliveros-Rosen said in a note addressed to its customers. “Overall, we forecast a stronger U.S. dollar against most emerging market currencies in 2025 than in 2024.”

The latest measures taken in emerging markets brought the total cuts since the start of the year to 1,810 basis points across 46 measures, surpassing the total of 1,765 basis points of easing in 2022, after 945 points base in 2023.

Total increases for emerging markets so far in 2024 have amounted to 1,350 basis points.

(Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Sumanta Sen, editing by William Maclean)