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Oil cartel OPEC+ is expected to extend current production cuts at its meeting on Thursday, waiting to see how US President-elect Donald Trump will impose oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

The widest OPEC The group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is currently withholding nearly 6 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market, or almost 6% of global supply, after making a series of reductions to support prices.

In June The group said it would continue to keep the majority of that oil off the market, although it would gradually begin ending voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd starting in September.

But he has repeatedly postponed extracting more oil in a falling market. The price of benchmark Brent crude fell more than 9 percent just before its June meeting and has traded in a tight range in recent months.

The cartel now wants to assess the impact of the new US administration on global oil supplies before making a decision, analysts say.

“The prudent step would be to continue monitoring and wait for another quarter,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Under current US President Biden, Iranian oil exports, almost all of which go to China, have been able to flourish. However, Trump has already threatened customs tariffs on certain oil producers and plans to resume its policy of “maximum pressure” to bankrupt Iran, seeking to reduce its oil exports to zero.

“I think the Trump factor is a big uncertainty,” said Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects. “We don’t know what impact the tariffs will have on the price, but it is generally downward. And at the same time, we don’t know how badly he’s going to attack Iran. So you have both sides. You need clarity on this before you can act.

Jorge Leon, a former OPEC member who now works at energy consultancy Rystad, said he expected the producers’ group to “try to play it safe and try to extend the production reductions. What I’m hearing is between two and three months.

On Wednesday, the United States began sanction specific tankers for the export of Iranian oil, a decision that saw oil prices end up around 3 percent that day.

One analyst, who asked not to be named, said Saudi Arabia was keen not to appear too keen to fill the void left, should sanctions on Iranian oil prove effective. “They will wait for the market to make it clear that it needs oil,” the analyst predicts.

A further delay will give OPEC+ time to see whether Chinese oil demand picks up as the government tries to boost the country’s economy. It also means it will be able to delay its decision until the winter refinery maintenance season, when oil demand tends to decline. “Chinese demand is significant, 100 percent,” the senator said.

Analysts believe that the oil market has factored in a further delay in implementing production cuts. But there has been speculation that some members of the OPEC+ group, including Iraq, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, are scrambling to increase their base production quotas after investing to increase capacity.

These concerns increased after OPEC+ last week delayed its meeting by four daysblaming a scheduling conflict with a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

“Every time OPEC changes a meeting, it fuels market concerns that there is internal discord, regardless of the logistical excuse given by OPEC members,” said Raad Alkadiri of the group Eurasia, a long-time OPEC observer. Pressure was placed on the organization to “revisit” its production policy in light of the production increases in these three countries, he added.

Alkadiri and Croft said meeting quotas would be a recurring theme for the oil market, as investors closely watch whether OPEC+ members actually release more oil.

The United Arab Emirates is currently pumping 1 million b/d above its quota, while Iraq is 350,000 b/d over and Kazakhstan is between 50,000 and 100,000 b/d, according to calculations by Jorge Montepeque , managing director of Onyx Capital, which produces a daily newsletter on the oil market.

“Over the next few months, the issue may turn out to be one of OPEC discipline, as opposed to formal declarations and formal production policy,” Eurasia’s Alkadiri said.

“If quota discipline decreases, that is exactly the same as removing the cuts. It’s just being done more surreptitiously,” he added.