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The Buffalo Bills are 9-2 in the 2024 season, one win away from clinching their fifth straight AFC East title. They don’t have a divisional opponent in Week 13, but a struggling San Francisco 49ers team still has plenty of firepower for Buffalo to worry about as December begins. Here are five keys to victory for the Bills as they host the 49ers in Orchard Park, NY, for Sunday Night Football.

This seems like an obvious key to victory, but it makes more sense when you look at the numbers. Heading into Week 13, the 49ers defense is 29th in the league in allowing opponents to convert red zone trips into touchdowns at 67.57%. The Bills offense is sixth in the league in converting their red zone trips into touchdowns at 63.83%. If these two trends continue on Sunday, Buffalo should see its chances of winning increase significantly.

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This stat may surprise you as much as it does me, but Brock Purdy has the second most scrimmages (undesigned quarterback runs) of any player in the NFL this season, only behind Jayden Daniels, according to Pro Football Focus. Purdy has taken off 37 times this year despite missing two games. For context, they have Josh Allen listed as scrambling 29 times, tied for ninth most in the league. Keeping Purdy in the pocket and under systematic pressure will help stifle the 49ers offense.

This one goes back to scoring touchdowns. The Bills are currently fourth in the league in rushing touchdowns per game at 1.6. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 29th in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed at a rate of 1.5 per game. It would benefit the Bills of Josh Allen, James Cook and company if these worlds collided several times on Sunday night.

The 49ers are top 10 in the NFL in conversions on third-and-9, third-and-10 and third-and-11-15, according to NFL Stats and Information. The Bills defense gets a bad rap from fans for being mediocre on third-and-long, but the numbers speak a little differently. Overall, on third and nine plus, they allowed 10 first downs on 45 plays. To take it a step further, they rank 14th in first downs allowed on third-and-10, and first in the league on third-and-11 and up. Just make sure it’s third-and-11 and not third-and-10. Simple, right?

Related: WATCH: Snowfall begins at Highmark Stadium ahead of Week 13 vs. 49ers

Wins are not a quarterback stat, but they are (in most cases) a coaching staff stat. Coming out of their bye, the Bills are 7-0 under head coach Sean McDermott. I don’t know what he does with this extra free time that works so well, but keep doing it.

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